New York Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay won the regular season 7–6 and posted a 55–26 home record; the Yankees were 46–34 at home. These figures concern the regular season and do not directly measure form in this ALDS.

The Rays’ style relies on putting the ball in play, aggressive baserunning, bunts, and productive outs.

The regular-season series ended with Tampa Bay holding a 7–6 advantage. No recent individual score is documented here.

This record remains limited for predicting Game 4, as it concerns the regular season, in a different context and with pitchers and lineups still partially unknown.

Aaron Judge is absent from the Yankees' ALDS roster due to a persistent right calf strain; a return would only be possible in the event of an ALCS. Giancarlo Stanton is active for the ALDS after a season disrupted by calf injuries.

No subsequent verifiable roster change or medical update has been established before the game.

Yankees scenario: Rodón can produce a deep and effective start, as he did during his eight scoreless innings against Tampa Bay on September 22, in order to limit bullpen exposure; however, Judge's absence and the uncertainty surrounding the lineup reduce the offensive margin. Rays scenario: their 0–2 deficit could be exploited through flexible use of Rasmussen, Peralta, Martinez, Jax and Seymour, as well as by applying pressure on the defense and baserunners; however, using a major pitcher outside the rotation could reduce coverage for a potential Game 5.

The weather and umpires have not been established.

Game scheduled for October 8, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium, i.e. October 9 at 00:00 UTC. The complete starting lineups have not yet been announced.

Carlos Rodón is the Yankees’ probable pitcher, a left-hander, with a 7–3 record, a 2.67 ERA, and 91 strikeouts. The Rays’ starter remains to be determined.

Selection: New York Yankees (Moneyline). Estimated probability: 53.2%, based on market odds. Odds 1.775. No bet: this probability is insufficient to justify a wager at these odds.