Arizona Diamondbacks – Chicago Cubs

Chicago has a season record of 76-57 compared with Arizona’s 70-63. Over the last ten games, Chicago is batting .261 with 21 home runs and 9.1 hits per game, compared with .249, 11 home runs, and 8.3 hits for Arizona.

The pitchers’ ERAs over that period are 4.52 for Chicago and 5.73 for Arizona.

Chicago leads 4-1 in the 2026 head-to-head matchups. The Cubs won 7-0 on August 24, then Arizona prevailed 5-4 on August 25. In the recorded history, Arizona holds a slight regular-season lead. Arizona won the 2007 NLDS 3-0.

Arizona lists Ketel Marte (knee), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (adductor), Ryan Thompson (back), as well as Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, and Ryne Nelson among the unavailable players. Chicago lists Dansby Swanson (side), Matt Shaw (hand), Edward Cabrera (blister), as well as Justin Steele, Ben Brown, and Cade Horton among the unavailable players.

No suspensions are reported.

The game is scheduled at Chase Field in Phoenix, as the final game of a three-game series. The provided start time is 19:41 UTC, while the consulted source indicates 19:40 UTC.

Rodríguez is 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.206 WHIP. Boyd is 8-2, with a 4.15 ERA over 91⅔ innings and a 1.64 ERA in two previous starts against Arizona as a Cubs player.

Lineups have not yet been published. The probable starting pitchers are Eduardo Rodríguez for Arizona and Matthew Boyd for Chicago.

The actual odds give Arizona 2.00 and Chicago 1.98, representing a total raw implied probability of approximately 100.5% and an overround of approximately 0.5%. After normalization, the market evaluates Arizona at approximately 49.75% and Chicago at 50.25%.

The sharp Betfair lines are identical for Arizona at 2.00 and close for Chicago at 1.97. The de-vigged market consensus baseline is unavailable; therefore, no clear value can be established beyond the slight relative price advantage in favor of Arizona at 2.00.