Prediction Baltimore Orioles – New York Yankees: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

BaltimoreOrioles

MLBSeason 2026

Final

1 – 6Final

Friday, 21 August 2026 · 00:36

New YorkYankees

Marcelito predictionLost

Baltimore Orioles +1.5

Handicap

Win probability61%

Operator odds are not available right now

Prediction summary

The Yankees appear as slight favorites according to the actual odds and probable pitchers, but the complete current form and the consensus baseline are not available.

Risks

No confirmed lineups.
Several key players are unavailable on both sides.
Full recent form as of August 20 is not available.
The May matchups are historical and may be poorly representative of the current game.
The de-vigged market consensus baseline is absent.

Invalidation conditions

Cancel any conclusions related to lineups if official lineups significantly alter the reported absences.
Cancel any value analysis if a de-vigged consensus baseline becomes available and contradicts the implied probabilities.
Cancel the probable pitchers analysis if Gerrit Cole or Kyle Bradish does not start.

Standings

#	Team	P	W	L	Diff
1	Tampa Bay Rays	162	98	64	86
2	New York Yankees	161	93	68	138
3	Boston Red Sox	162	87	75	78
7	Texas Rangers	162	80	82	-46
8	Baltimore Orioles	161	79	82	-21
9	Toronto Blue Jays	162	79	83	-46

Match information

Competition: MLB
Date and time: Friday, 21 August 2026 · 00:36
Status: Final

Keys to the match

Home advantage
Recent form
Defensive solidity
Away trip New York Yankees
Limited head-to-head

Detailed analysis

Recent form

The full record immediately before the game is not available. New York had won all four games of the May series against Baltimore, scoring 39 runs against 10, but those results are historical.

Head-to-head

In the four May 2026 meetings mentioned, the Yankees won 7-2, 11-3, 9-4, and 12-1, going 4-0 with a total of 39-10.

Absences and injuries

Yankees unavailable: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Clarke Schmidt. Orioles unavailable: Zach Eflin, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan Helsley, Keegan Akin, Félix Bautista, Blaze Alexander, Jordan Westburg, and Colin Selby.

No suspensions identified.

Context & news

The game is scheduled at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The probable pitchers are Gerrit Cole for New York (6-6, 3.22 ERA, 86.2 innings) and Kyle Bradish for Baltimore (7-11, 3.65 ERA, 133 innings).

Carlos Rodón was reinstated on August 18, and Trent Grisham remains on a productive recent stretch. The start time shows a one-minute discrepancy between the provided data and une source spécialisée.

Roster and lineup

Lineups not yet published

Odds analysis

The actual odds give Baltimore at 2.10 and New York at 1.86. Their combined implied probability is about 101.38%, an overround of about 1.38%.

After removing the vig, they correspond to approximately 46.97% for Baltimore and 53.03% for New York. The value cannot be established without a de-vigged market consensus baseline, which is unavailable information.

The sharp line provided by CBS was Yankees -121, Orioles +104, with a total of 8 points; no actual total is provided for comparison.

Alerts & record

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