Prediction Chicago Cubs – St. Louis Cardinals: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

ChicagoCubs

MLBSeason 2026

Final

4 – 11Final

Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 21:11

St. LouisCardinals

Marcelito predictionWon

St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

Handicap

Win probability58%

Operator odds are not available right now

Prediction summary

Chicago is favored at home and dominates recent head-to-head matchups, but full lineups are not published and several absences are reported on both sides.

Risks

Full starting lineups not published.
Several injury absences are reported, notably for the Cubs.
The probable pitchers have indicated ERAs of 3.40 for Hunter Dobbins and 5.10 for Edward Cabrera.
The UTC start time is not independently confirmed in the file.

Invalidation conditions

Cancel or reassess if the probable pitchers change.
Cancel or reassess after publication of the starting lineups if major absences are confirmed.
Cancel or reassess if the de-vigged consensus baseline becomes available and clearly contradicts the market price.

Standings

#	Team	P	W	L	Diff
1	Milwaukee Brewers	162	103	59	214
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	162	100	62	201
3	Atlanta Braves	162	94	68	116
4	San Diego Padres	162	91	71	41
5	Chicago Cubs	162	89	73	147
6	Philadelphia Phillies	162	88	74	15
9	Miami Marlins	162	80	82	3
10	St. Louis Cardinals	162	77	85	-29
11	Washington Nationals	162	77	85	6

Match information

Competition: MLB
Date and time: Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 21:11
Status: Final

Keys to the match

Home advantage
Full starting lineups not published.
Defensive solidity
Away trip St. Louis Cardinals
Limited head-to-head

Detailed analysis

Recent form

The Cubs have a record of 72-51 against 61-61 for the Cardinals. Chicago leads 4-1 in the last five recorded results between the two teams.

Head-to-head

Chicago has won four of the last five recorded head-to-head matchups, including the last four on three occasions. Last displayed result: Cubs victory 3-0 on August 14. Complete historical record: information not available.

Absences and injuries

Cardinals: Ramón Urías and Max Rajcic unavailable due to elbow injuries. Cubs: Shelby Miller, Tyler Austin, Hunter Harvey, Justin Steele, Phil Maton, Ben Brown, Porter Hodge, Matt Shaw, and several relief pitchers are reported absent for various injuries.

No suspensions reported.

Context & news

Game announced at Wrigley Field. Chicago is second in the NL Central and St. Louis is third.

The total displayed by une source spécialisée is 9 points. The une autre source schedule is 7:15 PM, without independent confirmation of the UTC time provided.

Roster and lineup

Lineups not yet published. Probable pitchers: Hunter Dobbins for St. Louis and Edward Cabrera for Chicago.

Odds analysis

The odds 1.67 and 2.38 imply approximately 59.9% and 42.0%, i.e., an overround of about 1.9%. After removing the vig, the implied probability is approximately 58.8% for Chicago and 41.2% for St. Louis.

The de-vigged market consensus baseline is not provided: the value and comparison to a sharp line are therefore information not available.

Alerts & record

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