San Diego Padres – Chicago Cubs

Best-of-three NL Wild Card Series, with the Chicago Cubs (No. 5 seed) facing the San Diego Padres (No. 4). San Diego hosts at Petco Park.

The Padres had won at least 90 games and secured their seeding after their victory over Arizona on September 26, 2026. The Cubs had won five of the six regular-season matchups, with a 55–28 run differential, heavily influenced by a 23–3 victory.

The weather, wind, field conditions, and primary surface at Petco Park are not established; the page dedicated to the adjacent Play Ball Field does not allow a conclusion about the MLB field.

Chicago won five of the six regular-season matchups against San Diego, with a cumulative run differential of 55–28, according to the MLB publication dated September 27, 2026. This record is limited by the significant influence of a 23–3 victory and, by itself, does not document the conditions of the playoff series or the pitchers for the game in question.

For the Padres, Casey Mize, Lucas Giolito, Joe Musgrove, Jeremiah Estrada, and Miguel Andújar were unavailable according to the situation published on September 27, 2026. Nick Pivetta was returning from a lengthy absence due to a flexor injury.

For the Cubs, Kevin Gausman was being monitored for pain in his non-throwing shoulder; his availability remained uncertain. Pitchers’ recovery between games in the series is not sufficiently documented.

Padres scenario: home-field advantage, a bullpen that can be used aggressively with Mason Miller as a ninth-inning option, as well as an offense described as improving in September with Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado, could favor San Diego in a close game. Limitation: Pivetta was not confirmed and was returning from injury.

Cubs scenario: their recent dominance in this matchup, their defense described as the best in MLB according to the Statcast metrics cited by MLB.com, as well as Pete Crow-Armstrong’s power and speed, could neutralize the home-field advantage. Limitations: a less favorable rotation according to the mentioned collective ERA, Gausman uncertain, and no designated closer.

The schedule published on September 27, 2026 places Game 2 on October 1 at 02:00 UTC and a potential Game 3 on October 2 at 02:00 UTC; the schedule must be confirmed.

The final lineups have not been announced. Nick Pivetta was the most likely candidate to start for San Diego in Game 2; Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga, and David Peterson were among Chicago’s options for what followed.

Alex Bregman’s exact position remained uncertain after his facial fractures. Dansby Swanson had returned from an oblique injury.

Selection: San Diego Padres (Moneyline). Estimated probability: 52.5%, based on market odds. Odds 1.893. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.