San Diego Padres – Milwaukee Brewers

Game 4 of the 2026 NLDS, a best-of-five series, scheduled at Petco Park on October 7 at 22 h ET, or October 8 at 02:00 UTC, if necessary. Milwaukee had the best regular-season record, won the NL Central, and won the series’ first two games 3-2 and then 4-3 on October 3 and 4.

San Diego had swept Chicago 2-0 in the Wild Card. Complete recent-form data, exact bullpen workloads after Game 3, and the weather have not been established.

The two documented matchups in this NLDS are Milwaukee’s 3-2 victory on October 3, 2026, and 4-3 victory on October 4, 2026. Game 3 was scheduled for October 6, but its result is not usable in this analysis.

These results describe the start of the series without, on their own, establishing a durable predictive trend, especially since the pitchers and Game 4 conditions remain unknown.

Joey Ortiz was probably expected to be available despite right knee, oblique and groin pain, with an MRI considered reassuring; his game status still depended on his progression, with the last cited update dated September 29, 2026. Andrew Vaughn, placed on the injured list due to illness, was probably expected to return for the NLDS.

Ortiz, Vaughn and Buehler's exact availability for Game 4 was not confirmed. Starting pitchers not yet announced: the probable pitchers page indicated TBD for both teams.

For Milwaukee, the 2-0 series lead, home-field advantage and better regular-season record support a control scenario, with a rotation considered around Dustin May, Tobias Myers/Harrison or an opener strategy; May’s form was nevertheless described as inconsistent before his scheduled start for Game 3. For San Diego, the home game and a 15-player offensive roster offering batting and positional changes support a resistance and offensive-pressure scenario.

Both scenarios are limited by the result and pitcher usage from Game 3, the Game 4 starters, the lineups and bullpen conditions, which remain unknown before the research cutoff.

The Padres' confirmed NLDS roster consisted of 26 players, including Robbie Ray, Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Mason Miller, Joe Musgrove, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, publication dated October 3, 2026. The starting lineups for Game 4 had not been established.

Walker Buehler was being considered to start Game 3 or 4, with no confirmation that he was actually supposed to pitch Game 4.

Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline). Estimated probability: 57.3%, based on market odds. Odds 1.61. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.