Real Madrid wins
Observed odds 1.28
Best odds
Bwin1.28
Bwin1.28
Winamax1.25
PMU1.24Observed odds
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AEK AthensFC
RealMadrid
Real Madrid wins
Observed odds 1.28
Bwin1.28Winamax1.25PMU1.24Observed odds
Prediction: Real Madrid · Match result (1X2). Estimated probability: 76 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Real Madrid · Match result (1X2). Estimated probability: 76 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
AEK beat LASK 1-0 at home on 8 September 2026, then lost 1-3 to Shakhtar Donetsk on 14 October and 1-5 at Manchester City on 20 October, according to UEFA results published on 21 October. Real Madrid beat Inter 2-1, won 4-3 in Rome, then Leipzig 4-1, according to the club’s and UEFA’s publications.
These sequences are partial and do not constitute the last five matches; the quality of chances, xG, and shots are not sufficiently documented for comparison.
No recent head-to-head between AEK Athens and Real Madrid was established in the pages consulted. Older encounters are therefore not used as a prédictive signal, especially since the squads and coaches may have changed.
Raúl Asencio underwent surgery for a stress fracture of the right tibia on October 1, 2026; his availability against AEK has not been announced and he should not be counted as available. On October 9, Mourinho had also mentioned Militão’s immediate unavailability, uncertainty surrounding Valverde, and medical issues concerning Mbappé, Konaté, Mendy and Rodrygo, but that statement does not establish their status as of November 4.
No report sufficiently close to the match confirms the absences or suspensions for either team.
In the scenario favorable to Real, its recent European efficiency and the spaces left by AEK may favor Madrid transitions, especially after Greek pressing. In the scenario favorable to AEK, familiar surroundings, a low block, quick transitions and set pieces may reduce the gap, particularly if Real rotates players before its match in Valencia on November 7.
Significant rotation, a reshuffled défense or goalkeeper, a major attacking absence, or confirmation of a neutral venue would substantially alter this assessment.
The official lineup, starting goalkeeper, and uncertain starters have not been announced. AEK are expected to host in Athens at their usual stadium, but the exact venue and its commercial name still need to be revalidated; the time is set for 4 November 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Eleven from the previous match, against Manchester City on 20 October 2026
CoachM. Nikolić
Eleven from the previous match, against RB Leipzig on 21 October 2026
CoachJosé Mourinho
Bench
AEK Athens FCReal Madrid
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | +9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | +5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | +5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | +3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | DWW | |
| 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | LWW | |
| 9 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | WLW | |
| 10 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | WLW | |
| 11 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | WWL | |
| 12 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | WLW | |
| 14 | 3 | +5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | DDW | |
| 15 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | WLD | |
| 16 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | DWL | |
| 17 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | LWD | |
| 18 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | WLD | |
| 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | LWL | |
| 20 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | WLL | |
| 21 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | LLW | |
| 22 | 3 | -2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WLLWL | |
| 25 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | LWLWL | |
| 26 | 3 | -4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | LWL | |
| 27 | 3 | -4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | LLW | |
| 28 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | LWLWW | |
| 29 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | LLWWD | |
| 30 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | LWL | |
| 31 | 3 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | DLDWD | |
| 32 | 3 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | -4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | LDLWD | |
| 34 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | LLLWD |
