Prediction Atalanta – Venezia: analysis, odds and forecast

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Atalanta

Serie A · ItalySeason 2026

Full time

3 – 1

Monday, 12 October 2026 · 18:30

New Balance Arena, Bergamo

Venezia

PickMoins de 3.5 buts
Estimated probability72%

4'1-0Franck KessiéAtalantaAssist · Nikola Krstović
6'2-0Nikola KrstovićAtalantaAssist · Elif Elmas
30'3-0Nikola KrstovićAtalanta
37'3-1Antoine HainautVeneziaAssist · Richie Sagrado

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoLost

Under 3.5 goals

Best odds

1xBet1.68

Pinnacle1.66

Bet3651.62

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskThe actual medical status of several players has not been confirmed.
RiskThe quality of the chances created by both teams has not been verified using comparable metrics.
RiskA change in the lineup or an incident involving a key player may change the pre-match assessment.

View more data

RiskThe exact qualification stakes and the duration of Venezia’s journey are not fully documented.
Invalidation conditionAn official lineup changed before kickoff.
Invalidation conditionA medical absence announced by one of the clubs.
Invalidation conditionThe early withdrawal of Carnesecchi, Stankovic or another key player before the start.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Read the full analysis

Atalanta host Venezia on matchday 6 of Serie A Enilive 2026/27 at the New Balance Arena, with a structural advantage linked to home conditions, a more coherent official lineup on the flanks, and Venezia’s defensive fragility. The main limitation remains the unverified quality of the chances created and uncertainty over any last-minute changes.

Recent form · Written before the match

After five matchdays, Atalanta are 11th with 6 points, while Venezia are 20th with 0 points. Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5 matches and lost 3, scoring 5 goals and conceding 7.

Venezia are coming off 5 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded. The latest results mentioned are Juventus 2-0 Atalanta, Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari, Roma 2-1 Atalanta, Atalanta 1-0 Bologna and Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo; for Venezia, Venezia 0-2 Lazio, Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina, Frosinone 3-2 Venezia, Milan 2-0 Venezia and Venezia 0-2 Lecce.

Both teams benefited from a long international break; the exact duration of Venezia’s journey is not documented. Advanced data such as xG, shots and pressing are not included, due to the lack of a verifiable provider among the sources consulted.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The latest documented previous meeting is Atalanta 0-0 Venezia, on March 1, 2025. Another mentioned match is Atalanta 4-0 Venezia, on November 30, 2021.

The recent historical record displayed is 5 wins for Atalanta, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Venezia, without a complete breakdown of the matches. The 2025 0-0 is the closest previous meeting, but its prédictive valeur remains low since the coaches, squads, and context have changed.

Context & news

Atalanta may look to use Bellanova and Zappacosta to progress down the flanks, then connect with De Ketelaere, Elmas and Krstović; this reading stems from the lineup and is not a performance measure. On the other side, Venezia come into the match with a défense that has conceded 13 goals in five matchdays, while Stroppa stated that he wants to reduce defensive errors after the break.

The opposing scenario relies on a more compact Venezia block, quick transitions and a match made uneven by Atalanta’s turnovers. Stroppa says that the break allowed several players to recover and gave the team time to work on its collective identity, but this does not constitute quantitative evidence of a turnaround.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final11 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 11:14 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+10	16	5	1	0	18	8	WDWWW
2	6	+7	16	5	1	0	11	4	WWDWW
3	6	+11	14	4	2	0	14	3	DDWWW
4	6	+3	13	4	1	1	6	3	DWWWL
5	6	+6	12	3	3	0	11	5	DWDDW
6	6	+4	11	3	2	1	9	5	DWLDW
7	6	+3	11	3	2	1	9	6	DLWWW
8	6	+4	10	3	1	2	10	6	WDWLL
9	6	+2	10	3	1	2	9	7	LWDWW
10	6	0	8	2	2	2	10	10	DLWDW
11	5	-2	6	2	0	3	5	7	LLLWW
12	6	-6	6	2	0	4	6	12	LLWLL
13	6	-2	5	1	2	3	5	7	WDLDL
14	5	-3	4	1	1	3	8	11	LLLWD
15	5	-3	4	1	1	3	5	8	DLWLL
16	6	-6	4	1	1	4	9	15	LWLDL
17	6	-6	4	1	1	4	5	11	WLDLL
···
18	6	-6	4	1	1	4	4	10	LWLDL
19	6	-7	4	1	1	4	7	14	LDWLL
20	5	-9	0	0	0	5	4	13	LLLLL

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Atalanta4-2-3-1

CoachM. Sarri

Venezia3-5-2

CoachG. Stroppa

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

Atalanta

Substitutes12

Out and doubtful4

Venezia

Substitutes15

Out and doubtful9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

65 matches
46 matches
45 matches
44 matches
35 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

45 matches
36 matches
35 matches
25 matches
25 matches

CardsCards

66 matches
66 matches
65 matches
45 matches
35 matches

Player statistics

Atalanta

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.69	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.9	0	0	0	0	67	0
6.57	0	0	0	2	90	0
6.69	0	0	0	0	67	0
6.55	0	0	0	3	90	0
7.76	1	0	2	2	76	0
6.79	0	0	2	2	90	0
7.18	0	1	1	1	89	1
7.03	0	0	1	1	60	0
6.43	0	0	1	3	76	0
8.8	2	1	4	7	90	0

See all (11)

Venezia

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
7.19	0	0	0	90	0
6.23	0	0	1	90	0
6.39	0	0	0	90	1
5.63	0	0	0	83	1
7.87	1	1	2	90	0
6.9	0	1	2	90	0
6.6	0	0	0	87	0
6.3	0	1	2	83	0
5.79	0	0	0	8	0
6.39	0	1	5	90	0
6.83	0	0	4	83	0

See all (11)

Events

4'Goal · Assist: Nikola KrstovićAtalanta
6'Goal · Assist: Elif ElmasAtalanta
8'SubstitutionVenezia
18'Yellow card · FoulVenezia
30'GoalAtalanta
37'Goal · Assist: Richie SagradoVenezia
42'Yellow card · FoulVenezia
60'SubstitutionAtalanta
67'SubstitutionAtalanta
67'SubstitutionAtalanta
76'SubstitutionAtalanta
76'SubstitutionAtalanta
83'SubstitutionVenezia
83'SubstitutionVenezia
83'SubstitutionVenezia
87'SubstitutionVenezia
88'VARAtalanta
89'Red cardAtalanta

See all (18)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

AtalantaVenezia

2.16Expected goals2.65

11Shots on target4

3Saves7

1Red cards↓0

22Shots19

8Corners7

0Yellow cards↓2

All statistics (17)

Attack

16Shots inside the box10

6Shots outside the box9

5Blocked shots6

6Shots off target9

0Offsides5

Passing

36%Possession64%

276Accurate passes526

332Passes580

Discipline

14Fouls↓6

6Free kicks10

Recent formSerie A

Atalanta

LLLWW

vs Juventus0–2L
vs Cagliari1–2L
vs AS Roma1–2L
vs Bologna1–0W
vs Sassuolo2–1W

Venezia

LLLLL

vs Lazio0–2L
vs Fiorentina2–4L
vs Frosinone2–3L
vs AC Milan0–2L
vs Lecce0–2L

Head-to-head

D0–01 Mar 2025 · Serie A · Regular Season - 27
L0–220 Oct 2024 · Serie A · Regular Season - 8
L1–323 Apr 2022 · Serie A · Regular Season - 34

RecordAtalanta · 0W · 1D · 2L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

12 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Serie A
Stadium: Gewiss Stadium
City: Bergamo
Capacity: 21,300
Surface: Natural grass

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Atalanta

Serie A · ItalySeason 2026

Full time

3 – 1

Monday, 12 October 2026 · 18:30

New Balance Arena, Bergamo

Venezia

PickMoins de 3.5 buts
Estimated probability72%

4'1-0Franck KessiéAtalantaAssist · Nikola Krstović
6'2-0Nikola KrstovićAtalantaAssist · Elif Elmas
30'3-0Nikola KrstovićAtalanta
37'3-1Antoine HainautVeneziaAssist · Richie Sagrado

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoLost

Under 3.5 goals

Best odds

1xBet1.68

Pinnacle1.66

Bet3651.62

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskThe actual medical status of several players has not been confirmed.
RiskThe quality of the chances created by both teams has not been verified using comparable metrics.
RiskA change in the lineup or an incident involving a key player may change the pre-match assessment.

View more data

RiskThe exact qualification stakes and the duration of Venezia’s journey are not fully documented.
Invalidation conditionAn official lineup changed before kickoff.
Invalidation conditionA medical absence announced by one of the clubs.
Invalidation conditionThe early withdrawal of Carnesecchi, Stankovic or another key player before the start.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

After five matchdays, Atalanta are 11th with 6 points, while Venezia are 20th with 0 points. Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5 matches and lost 3, scoring 5 goals and conceding 7.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The latest documented previous meeting is Atalanta 0-0 Venezia, on March 1, 2025. Another mentioned match is Atalanta 4-0 Venezia, on November 30, 2021.

Context & news

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final11 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 11:14 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+10	16	5	1	0	18	8	WDWWW
2	6	+7	16	5	1	0	11	4	WWDWW
3	6	+11	14	4	2	0	14	3	DDWWW
4	6	+3	13	4	1	1	6	3	DWWWL
5	6	+6	12	3	3	0	11	5	DWDDW
6	6	+4	11	3	2	1	9	5	DWLDW
7	6	+3	11	3	2	1	9	6	DLWWW
8	6	+4	10	3	1	2	10	6	WDWLL
9	6	+2	10	3	1	2	9	7	LWDWW
10	6	0	8	2	2	2	10	10	DLWDW
11	5	-2	6	2	0	3	5	7	LLLWW
12	6	-6	6	2	0	4	6	12	LLWLL
13	6	-2	5	1	2	3	5	7	WDLDL
14	5	-3	4	1	1	3	8	11	LLLWD
15	5	-3	4	1	1	3	5	8	DLWLL
16	6	-6	4	1	1	4	9	15	LWLDL
17	6	-6	4	1	1	4	5	11	WLDLL
···
18	6	-6	4	1	1	4	4	10	LWLDL
19	6	-7	4	1	1	4	7	14	LDWLL
20	5	-9	0	0	0	5	4	13	LLLLL

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Atalanta4-2-3-1

CoachM. Sarri

Venezia3-5-2

CoachG. Stroppa

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

Atalanta

Substitutes12

Out and doubtful4

Venezia

Substitutes15

Out and doubtful9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

65 matches
46 matches
45 matches
44 matches
35 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

45 matches
36 matches
35 matches
25 matches
25 matches

CardsCards

66 matches
66 matches
65 matches
45 matches
35 matches

Player statistics

Atalanta

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.69	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.9	0	0	0	0	67	0
6.57	0	0	0	2	90	0
6.69	0	0	0	0	67	0
6.55	0	0	0	3	90	0
7.76	1	0	2	2	76	0
6.79	0	0	2	2	90	0
7.18	0	1	1	1	89	1
7.03	0	0	1	1	60	0
6.43	0	0	1	3	76	0
8.8	2	1	4	7	90	0

See all (11)

Venezia

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
7.19	0	0	0	90	0
6.23	0	0	1	90	0
6.39	0	0	0	90	1
5.63	0	0	0	83	1
7.87	1	1	2	90	0
6.9	0	1	2	90	0
6.6	0	0	0	87	0
6.3	0	1	2	83	0
5.79	0	0	0	8	0
6.39	0	1	5	90	0
6.83	0	0	4	83	0

See all (11)

Events

4'Goal · Assist: Nikola KrstovićAtalanta
6'Goal · Assist: Elif ElmasAtalanta
8'SubstitutionVenezia
18'Yellow card · FoulVenezia
30'GoalAtalanta
37'Goal · Assist: Richie SagradoVenezia
42'Yellow card · FoulVenezia
60'SubstitutionAtalanta
67'SubstitutionAtalanta
67'SubstitutionAtalanta
76'SubstitutionAtalanta
76'SubstitutionAtalanta
83'SubstitutionVenezia
83'SubstitutionVenezia
83'SubstitutionVenezia
87'SubstitutionVenezia
88'VARAtalanta
89'Red cardAtalanta

See all (18)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

AtalantaVenezia

2.16Expected goals2.65

11Shots on target4

3Saves7

1Red cards↓0

22Shots19

8Corners7

0Yellow cards↓2

All statistics (17)

Attack

16Shots inside the box10

6Shots outside the box9

5Blocked shots6

6Shots off target9

0Offsides5

Passing

36%Possession64%

276Accurate passes526

332Passes580

Discipline

14Fouls↓6

6Free kicks10

Recent formSerie A

Atalanta

LLLWW

vs Juventus0–2L
vs Cagliari1–2L
vs AS Roma1–2L
vs Bologna1–0W
vs Sassuolo2–1W

Venezia

LLLLL

vs Lazio0–2L
vs Fiorentina2–4L
vs Frosinone2–3L
vs AC Milan0–2L
vs Lecce0–2L

Head-to-head

D0–01 Mar 2025 · Serie A · Regular Season - 27
L0–220 Oct 2024 · Serie A · Regular Season - 8
L1–323 Apr 2022 · Serie A · Regular Season - 34

RecordAtalanta · 0W · 1D · 2L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

12 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Serie A
Stadium: Gewiss Stadium
City: Bergamo
Capacity: 21,300
Surface: Natural grass

All our results