Atlético Madrid +1.5
Observed odds 1.26
Best odds
Winamax1.26
Winamax1.26
PMU1.18Observed odds
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AtleticoMadrid
BayernMünchen
Atlético Madrid +1.5
Observed odds 1.26
Winamax1.26PMU1.18Observed odds
Prediction: Atlético Madrid +1.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 76.9 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Atlético Madrid +1.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 76.9 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Atlético beat Manchester United 2-0 at home on 13 October 2026, after a 2-1 defeat at Liverpool on 9 September and a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart on 20 October, results confirmed by UEFA. Bayern beat Bodø/Glimt 5-0 on 10 September, drew 3-3 at Viking on 13 October and drew 2-2 against Arsenal on 21 October, according to the FC Bayern schedule.
These records do not constitute a complete series of the last five matches across all competitions; shots, xG and pressing are not sufficiently documented in a compatible manner. The last known European match was fourteen days ago for Atlético and thirteen days ago for Bayern, but the intervening domestic schedule does not allow effective rest or travel to be compared.
No recent historical Atlético-Bayern score was retained from the official pages consulted. This does not allow us to conclude that there have been no encounters.
Any potential previous meetings would have limited prédictive valeur due to changes in squads, coaches and competitive context.
Johnny Cardoso is suffering from a minor muscle injury in his thigh, confirmed by Atlético on October 22, 2026; his return date depends on his progress. Luis Díaz sustained a small tear in his left hamstring against Arsenal, and Bayern declared him unavailable for an indefinite period on October 22; his specific absence on November 3 has not been officially determined.
The final availability of Cardoso, Díaz, Koke, Cristian Romero, and Musiala has not been confirmed. The issues reported for Koke, Romero, and other players, as well as a possible suspension for Morten Hjulmand, have not been confirmed by a complete official medical report.
Atlético may look to defend in a compact block, regain possession and then accelerate in transition, with the support of the Metropolitano; this scenario is consistent with its 2-0 home win against Manchester United, but it is limited by the defeat at Liverpool and the draw at Stuttgart. Bayern, on the contrary, may stretch the Madrid block through its circulation and attacking transitions, relying on its European results and the three goals scored at Viking; this possibility remains conditional, as progression, attacking-zone and pressing metrics are lacking.
The reversal will depend in particular on the attacking lineup, the goalkeeper, the presence of Díaz and Musiala, and Kompany’s situation.
League-phase match, Matchday 4 of the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, on November 3, 2026 at 21:00 local time at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid; Atlético are the home team. The starting lineups and goalkeepers have not been announced.
The identity of the person in charge of Bayern’s bench on matchday also remains uncertain after Vincent Kompany’s hospitalization reported by the Bundesliga on October 24, 2026.
Eleven from the previous match, against VfB Stuttgart on 20 October 2026
CoachD. Simeone
Eleven from the previous match, against Arsenal on 21 October 2026
CoachV. Kompany
Bench
Atletico MadridBayern München
RecordAtletico Madrid · 2W · 1D · 0L
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | +9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | +5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | +5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | +3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | DWW | |
| 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | LWW | |
| 9 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | WLW | |
| 10 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | WLW | |
| 11 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | WWL | |
| 12 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | WLW | |
| 14 | 3 | +5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | DDW | |
| 15 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | WLD | |
| 16 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | DWL | |
| 17 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | LWD | |
| 18 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | WLD | |
| 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | LWL | |
| 20 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | WLL | |
| 21 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | LLW | |
| 22 | 3 | -2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WLLWL | |
| 25 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | LWLWL | |
| 26 | 3 | -4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | LWL | |
| 27 | 3 | -4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | LLW | |
| 28 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | LWLWW | |
| 29 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | LLWWD | |
| 30 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | LWL | |
| 31 | 3 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | DLDWD | |
| 32 | 3 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | -4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | LDLWD | |
| 34 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | LLLWD |
