Bayer Leverkusen wins
Observed odds 1.38
Observed odds
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BayerLeverkusen
Marseille

Bayer Leverkusen wins
Observed odds 1.38
Observed odds
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen · Match result (1X2). Estimated probability: 69.4 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Bayer Leverkusen · Match result (1X2). Estimated probability: 69.4 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
In the Europa League, Leverkusen beat Celje 2-0 on September 16, Lech Poznań 4-0 on October 15 and OFI Crete 2-0 on October 22. The club also lost 3-0 at Hoffenheim on October 25 before beating Nürnberg 5-2 in the Cup on October 28.
Marseille lost 4-1 at Beşiktaş on September 17, 1-0 against Olympiacos on October 15 and 1-0 at Sturm Graz on October 22. The European runs therefore favor Leverkusen, but the samples are limited and comparable xG, shots or pressing data are not established for both teams.
No recent meeting between Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille with a verifiable score and date is mentioned. Any old encounter would have limited prédictive valeur if the coaches, systems and squads have changed.
Martin Terrier is confirmed unavailable until December after a left thigh injury; Jonas Hofmann was added to the European list on 20 October. Moussa Diaby is suffering from a thigh injury and his return is expected after the November international break, which makes his presence unlikely without making it formally impossible.
The Marseille absences, suspensions, starting goalkeeper and uncertain starters are not confirmed.
Leverkusen may look to impose territorial pressure at home and attack Marseille's defensive transitions; their first three European matches ended with ten goals scored and none conceded, and the club described its win at OFI as offensive with 33 attempts. Opposite scenario: Marseille may defend deeper, close the spaces behind the first line and exploit transitions or set pieces; the team had scored four times away against Beşiktaş despite its 4-1 defeat.
Leverkusen's 3-0 defeat at Hoffenheim nevertheless recalls that its structure can suffer when the first pressure is broken, while Marseille have not scored in their two subsequent European matches.
League phase match, matchday 4, scheduled for November 5, 2026 at the BayArena, Leverkusen, with Bayer as the home team. The official line-ups have not yet been announced.
The league phase standings and points are not established, and no rotation linked to a first-leg score is relevant in this format.
Eleven from the previous match, against OFI on 22 October 2026
CoachCarles Martínez
Eleven from the previous match, against Sturm Graz on 22 October 2026
CoachBruno Genesio
Bench
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | +6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | +5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 2 | +3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 16 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 17 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 18 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 2 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 22 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 23 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 24 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 25 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 26 | 2 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 27 | 2 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 28 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 29 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 30 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 31 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 32 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 33 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 34 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 35 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 36 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |