Over 2.5 goals
Observed odds 1.27
Observed odds
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Benfica
LechPoznan

Over 2.5 goals
Observed odds 1.27
Observed odds
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 74 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Over 2.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 74 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
UEFA Europa League league phase match, matchday 4, on 5 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC at the Estádio da Luz, Benfica's actual home ground, confirmed by the official Lech Poznań calendar published on 29 August 2026 and by TNT Sports. Benfica won 2-1 at Santa Clara on 26 October, 4-1 at Omonia on 22 October, 4-1 against Celtic on 15 October and 2-0 against Vitória Guimarães on 11 October, after a 1-3 defeat at Porto on 20 September.
Lech Poznań won 2-1 at Legia Warsaw on 25 October, drew 1-1 against Sunderland on 22 October, won 6-1 against Korona Kielce on 18 October, lost 0-4 against Leverkusen on 15 October and won 4-1 at Śląsk Wrocław on 10 October. The detailed standings and the exact qualification stakes are not verified by an open primary source.
No comparable xG, shot volume or pressing indicator is established.
Two recent meetings are documented in the 2020 Europa League: Lech Poznań 2-4 Benfica on 22 October 2020, then Benfica 4-0 Lech Poznań on 3 December 2020, according to TNT Sports. These results favour Benfica, but their prédictive valeur is limited: six years separate those matches from the announced fixture, and the squads, coaches and competitive context have probably changed.
No current absences are confirmed by a club, a federation or an open and dated press conference. Possible injuries are mentioned by aggregators, but they remain unconfirmed.
Suspensions are not verified. Goalkeepers and uncertain players therefore cannot be reliably identified.
Benfica can impose territorial pressure and exploit offensive transitions at home; this reading is based on its European wins 4-1 against Celtic and 4-1 at Omonia, but the precise tactical mechanism is not demonstrated by comparable data. Opposite scenario: Lech can withstand the first pressing, attack the spaces behind the full-backs and use set pieces, building on its wins 2-1 at Legia, 6-1 against Korona and 4-1 at Śląsk.
Its 0-4 defeat against Leverkusen and its 1-1 draw against Sunderland nevertheless signal a less stable European campaign. The trip to Lisbon is plausible, but its duration and arrangements are not documented.
No official lineup is available before the match. The starting goalkeeper and the uncertain starters are not established; previous lineups do not allow them to be deduced.
The time is confirmed at 20:00 UTC and the venue at the Estádio da Luz.
Eleven from the previous match, against Omonia Nicosia on 22 October 2026
CoachMarco Silva
Eleven from the previous match, against Sunderland on 22 October 2026
CoachN. Frederiksen
Bench
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | +6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | +5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 2 | +3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 16 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 17 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 18 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 2 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 22 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 23 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 24 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 25 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 26 | 2 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 27 | 2 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 28 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 29 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 30 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 31 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 32 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 33 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 34 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 35 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 36 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |