Prediction Borussia Dortmund – Hamburger SV: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

2 - 0

Bundesliga Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 18:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

PickBorussia DortmundHome win
Estimated probability75%

9'1-0S. GuirassyBorussia DortmundAssist · K. Karetsas
45'1-1S. BornauwOwn goalBorussia Dortmund

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Borussia Dortmund wins

Best odds

1xBet1.34

Matchbook1.34

Betsson1.33

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskNo probable lineups published.
RiskDortmund’s medical information is not a definitive confirmation for the match.
RiskNo sufficiently documented recent form for Hamburger SV.

View more data

RiskThe available data concerns preparation and not complete recent competitive results.
Invalidation conditionCancellation or postponement of the match.
Invalidation conditionDortmund lineup confirming a significant deterioration in the announced availability.
Invalidation conditionPublication of reliable information revealing additional major absences.
Invalidation conditionMarked odds movement making the valeur assessment obsolete.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Dortmund are favorites at home according to the market and have a recent advantage in head-to-head meetings, but the lineups and Hamburg’s current form remain insufficiently documented.

Read the full analysis

Dortmund are favorites at home according to the market and have a recent advantage in head-to-head meetings, but the lineups and Hamburg’s current form remain insufficiently documented.

Recent form · Written before the match

Dortmund beat Arsenal 3-2 in their last published preparation match, after two wins and two losses in their five previous friendlies. A test against AS Roma was then played, with no recent competitive record available.

Recent form of Hamburger SV: information not available.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

In 2025/26, the teams drew 1-1 in Hamburg, then Dortmund won 3-2 at home after trailing 0-2. Dortmund are unbeaten in their last seven matches against Hamburg, with six wins and one draw.

Hamburg’s last win dates back to the 2015/16 season. Historical DFB record: 48 wins for Dortmund, 29 draws and 41 wins for Hamburg.

Context & news

Bundesliga 2026/27 Matchday 1 at Signal Iduna Park. The available information on Dortmund is dated August 20 and Hamburg’s form is not sufficiently documented.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 10:26 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	1	+4	3	1	0	0	5	1	W
2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
···
10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
18	1	-4	0	0	0	1	1	5	L

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Borussia Dortmund3-4-3

CoachNiko Kovac

Hamburger SV3-4-2-1

CoachMerlin Polzin

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

Borussia Dortmund

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful4

Hamburger SV

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful3

Player statistics

Borussia Dortmund

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

See all (11)

Hamburger SV

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0

See all (11)

Events

9'Goal · Assist: K. KaretsasBorussia Dortmund
21'Yellow card · FoulHamburger SV
45'Own goalBorussia Dortmund
54'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
58'Yellow card · FoulBorussia Dortmund
67'SubstitutionHamburger SV
67'SubstitutionHamburger SV
74'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
74'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
74'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
77'Red card · FoulBorussia Dortmund
82'SubstitutionHamburger SV
82'SubstitutionHamburger SV
84'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
85'Yellow card · FoulBorussia Dortmund
89'SubstitutionHamburger SV

See all (16)

Comparative statistics18 metrics

Borussia DortmundHamburger SV

6Shots on target3

20Shots7

13Fouls↓19

3Corners1

56%Possession44%

2Yellow cards↓1

1Red cards↓0

All statistics (18)

Attack

1.41Expected goals0.69

10Shots off target4

4Blocked shots0

12Shots inside the box3

8Shots outside the box4

1Offsides1

0Goals prevented0

Passing

88%Pass accuracy81%

537Passes414

471Accurate passes337

Defence

3Saves5

Recent formBundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

WWLWL

vs Werder Bremen2–0W
vs Eintracht Frankfurt3–2W
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1L
vs SC Freiburg4–0W
vs 1899 Hoffenheim1–2L

Hamburger SV

DWWLL

vs Bayer Leverkusen1–1D
vs SC Freiburg3–2W
vs Eintracht Frankfurt2–1W
vs 1899 Hoffenheim1–2L
vs Werder Bremen1–3L

Head-to-head

W2–02 months ago
W3–27 months ago · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27
D1–111 months ago · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10

RecordBorussia Dortmund · 2W · 1D · 0L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

29 August ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Bundesliga
Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund
Referee: Felix Zwayer

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

2 - 0

Bundesliga Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 18:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

PickBorussia DortmundHome win
Estimated probability75%

9'1-0S. GuirassyBorussia DortmundAssist · K. Karetsas
45'1-1S. BornauwOwn goalBorussia Dortmund

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Borussia Dortmund wins

Best odds

1xBet1.34

Matchbook1.34

Betsson1.33

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskNo probable lineups published.
RiskDortmund’s medical information is not a definitive confirmation for the match.
RiskNo sufficiently documented recent form for Hamburger SV.

View more data

RiskThe available data concerns preparation and not complete recent competitive results.
Invalidation conditionCancellation or postponement of the match.
Invalidation conditionDortmund lineup confirming a significant deterioration in the announced availability.
Invalidation conditionPublication of reliable information revealing additional major absences.
Invalidation conditionMarked odds movement making the valeur assessment obsolete.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Dortmund are favorites at home according to the market and have a recent advantage in head-to-head meetings, but the lineups and Hamburg’s current form remain insufficiently documented.

Read the full analysis

Dortmund are favorites at home according to the market and have a recent advantage in head-to-head meetings, but the lineups and Hamburg’s current form remain insufficiently documented.

Recent form · Written before the match

Recent form of Hamburger SV: information not available.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

In 2025/26, the teams drew 1-1 in Hamburg, then Dortmund won 3-2 at home after trailing 0-2. Dortmund are unbeaten in their last seven matches against Hamburg, with six wins and one draw.

Hamburg’s last win dates back to the 2015/16 season. Historical DFB record: 48 wins for Dortmund, 29 draws and 41 wins for Hamburg.

Context & news

Bundesliga 2026/27 Matchday 1 at Signal Iduna Park. The available information on Dortmund is dated August 20 and Hamburg’s form is not sufficiently documented.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 10:26 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	1	+4	3	1	0	0	5	1	W
2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
···
10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
18	1	-4	0	0	0	1	1	5	L

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Borussia Dortmund3-4-3

CoachNiko Kovac

Hamburger SV3-4-2-1

CoachMerlin Polzin

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

Borussia Dortmund

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful4

Hamburger SV

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful3

Player statistics

Borussia Dortmund

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

See all (11)

Hamburger SV

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0

See all (11)

Events

9'Goal · Assist: K. KaretsasBorussia Dortmund
21'Yellow card · FoulHamburger SV
45'Own goalBorussia Dortmund
54'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
58'Yellow card · FoulBorussia Dortmund
67'SubstitutionHamburger SV
67'SubstitutionHamburger SV
74'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
74'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
74'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
77'Red card · FoulBorussia Dortmund
82'SubstitutionHamburger SV
82'SubstitutionHamburger SV
84'SubstitutionBorussia Dortmund
85'Yellow card · FoulBorussia Dortmund
89'SubstitutionHamburger SV

See all (16)

Comparative statistics18 metrics

Borussia DortmundHamburger SV

6Shots on target3

20Shots7

13Fouls↓19

3Corners1

56%Possession44%

2Yellow cards↓1

1Red cards↓0

All statistics (18)

Attack

1.41Expected goals0.69

10Shots off target4

4Blocked shots0

12Shots inside the box3

8Shots outside the box4

1Offsides1

0Goals prevented0

Passing

88%Pass accuracy81%

537Passes414

471Accurate passes337

Defence

3Saves5

Recent formBundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

WWLWL

vs Werder Bremen2–0W
vs Eintracht Frankfurt3–2W
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1L
vs SC Freiburg4–0W
vs 1899 Hoffenheim1–2L

Hamburger SV

DWWLL

vs Bayer Leverkusen1–1D
vs SC Freiburg3–2W
vs Eintracht Frankfurt2–1W
vs 1899 Hoffenheim1–2L
vs Werder Bremen1–3L

Head-to-head

W2–02 months ago
W3–27 months ago · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27
D1–111 months ago · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10

RecordBorussia Dortmund · 2W · 1D · 0L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

29 August ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Bundesliga
Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund
Referee: Felix Zwayer

All our results

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.6	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	74	1
7.2	—	0	—	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	2	74	0
7	—	0	—	3	84	0
7.9	—	1	3	4	74	0
8	1	0	2	2	90	0
6.6	—	0	—	2	54	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
8.5	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	90	0
5.5	—	—	—	90	0
5.9	—	—	—	82	0
6.5	—	—	—	82	0
6.9	—	—	1	90	1
6.9	—	—	—	90	0
6	—	—	—	89	0
6.7	—	—	—	67	0
6.9	—	2	2	90	0
6.3	—	—	3	67	0