Prediction Estonie – Islande: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

Estonie

Full time

0 - 0

Ligue des nations Tuesday, 6 October 2026 · 20:45 A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

Islande

PickIslandeAway win
Estimated probability61%

Mi-temps : 0–0

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoLost

Iceland wins

Best odds

1xBet1.62

Bet3651.57

Pinnacle1.57

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskThe official lineups, goalkeepers, and Karol Mets’s actual status are not known before the match.
RiskIceland faces travel and short rest, with several confirmed absences.
RiskThe full standings and the exact stakes at kickoff have not been consolidated.

View more data

RiskIceland’s recent intermediate results are not detailed, and no comparable chance-creation metric has been established.
Invalidation conditionThe official team sheet confirms an additional major absence or an unexpected goalkeeper.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineup confirms Karol Mets’s unavailability or a heavily reshuffled Estonian défense.
Invalidation conditionThe Icelandic lineup reveals the return or absence of a key attacking player.
Invalidation conditionThe official venue or kickoff time of the match has been changed.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Iceland has the market’s backing and a 1–1 draw from the first leg, but Estonia remains unbeaten in its first three matchdays and is playing at home in Tallinn.

Read the full analysis

Iceland has the market’s backing and a 1-1 draw from the first leg, but Estonia remains unbeaten in its first three matchdays and is playing at home in Tallinn. The main expected mechanism is a potentially cagey match, with Estonia likely seeking transitions and set pieces while Iceland would try to exploit space in transition.

The decisive limitation remains uncertainty over the goalkeepers, starters, and the true state of Estonia’s défense.

Recent form · Written before the match

Estonia won 1-0 against Luxembourg at home on 3 October, drew 0-0 against Bulgaria away on 29 September, and drew 1-1 against Iceland away on 26 September; it had previously beaten Lithuania and the Faroe Islands 1-0 in June. Iceland drew 1-1 against Estonia on 26 September; its interim results before the trip to Tallinn are not detailed here.

Both teams played on 3 October and have approximately three days of recovery. No comparable series of xG, shots, or pressing has been established.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The match in this campaign on 26 September 2026 ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia. The previous matches mentioned are Estonia 1-1 Iceland in January 2023 and Iceland 1-0 Estonia in 2014.

The September 2026 match is the only immediately relevant precedent; the others are limited by changes in squads, coaches, and competitive context.

Absences and returns

Estonia: Rauno Sappinen, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, Vladislav Kreida, Kristo Hussar, Marten‑Chris Paalberg, Tony Varjund and Nikita Mihhailov were ruled out for medical reasons in the federation list of 15 September. The suspension of Karol Mets, Karl Hein’s departure and Matvei Igonen’s starting role are not confirmed before the deadline.

Iceland: Elías Rafn Ólafsson, Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason, Albert Guðmundsson and Kristall Máni Ingason were absent through injury; Þórir Helgason replaced Albert Guðmundsson. Mikael Egill Ellertsson was suspended for this match, according to the 3 October update.

Context & news

The competition is the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 C4 group stage, Matchday 4. The group also includes Bulgaria and Luxembourg; the full standings and the exact consequences of the result remain unknown.

Estonian scenario: a full-strength defensive lineup, home advantage, and set-piece efficiency can keep the match tight. Icelandic scenario: a first-choice attack and quick transitions can exploit the spaces behind the home défense, despite the travel, short rest, and reported absences.

The detailed mechanisms of progression, box defending, and set pieces are not sufficiently documented to be established.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	122	1147	122
	73	1349	73

LineupsStarting XI

Estonie3-5-2

CoachJ. Henn

Islande4-2-3-1

CoachA. Gunnlaugsson

Full squad

Bench

Estonie

Substitutes12

Islande

Substitutes12

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

32 matches
32 matches
33 matches
33 matches
33 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

33 matches
22 matches
22 matches
23 matches
23 matches

CardsCards

62 matches
23 matches
23 matches
23 matches
23 matches

Player statistics

Estonie

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
6.52	0	0	90
6.66	0	1	90
6.96	0	0	90
7.31	0	0	90
6.65	2	2	90
6.64	0	1	68
6.24	0	2	90
6.44	0	0	61
6.06	0	0	61
6.31	1	4	90
6.37	0	2	61

See all (11)

Islande

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
7.45	0	0	90	0
6.59	0	3	90	0
7.09	0	0	90	0
7.33	0	1	67	0
6.69	0	0	90	1
7.2	0	1	67	0
7.2	0	1	90	0
6.44	1	1	90	0
6.27	0	1	90	0
6.62	0	2	90	0
6.25	0	0	90	0

See all (11)

Events

25'Yellow card · FoulIslande
61'SubstitutionEstonie
61'SubstitutionEstonie
61'SubstitutionEstonie
67'SubstitutionIslande
67'SubstitutionIslande
68'SubstitutionEstonie
84'Yellow card · DissentEstonie

See all (8)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

EstonieIslande

3Shots on target1

2Saves3

13Shots10

1Yellow cards↓1

3Corners7

10Fouls↓9

0Red cards↓0

All statistics (16)

Attack

8Shots inside the box7

5Shots outside the box3

1Blocked shots4

9Shots off target5

1Offsides0

Passing

38%Possession62%

274Accurate passes488

357Passes577

Discipline

9Free kicks10

Recent formUEFA Nations League

Estonie

WDD

vs Luxembourg1–0W
vs Bulgaria0–0D
vs Iceland1–1D

Islande

vs Luxembourg3–0W
vs Estonia1–1D

Head-to-head

D1–1last month · UEFA Nations League · League C - 1
D1–18 Jan 2023 · Friendlies · Friendlies 1

RecordEstonie · 0W · 2D · 0L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

6 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Stadium: A. Le Coq Arena
City: Tallinn
Referee: David Dickinson
Capacity: 14,405
Surface: Natural grass

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

Estonie

Full time

0 - 0

Ligue des nations Tuesday, 6 October 2026 · 20:45 A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

Islande

PickIslandeAway win
Estimated probability61%

Mi-temps : 0–0

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoLost

Iceland wins

Best odds

1xBet1.62

Bet3651.57

Pinnacle1.57

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskThe official lineups, goalkeepers, and Karol Mets’s actual status are not known before the match.
RiskIceland faces travel and short rest, with several confirmed absences.
RiskThe full standings and the exact stakes at kickoff have not been consolidated.

View more data

RiskIceland’s recent intermediate results are not detailed, and no comparable chance-creation metric has been established.
Invalidation conditionThe official team sheet confirms an additional major absence or an unexpected goalkeeper.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineup confirms Karol Mets’s unavailability or a heavily reshuffled Estonian défense.
Invalidation conditionThe Icelandic lineup reveals the return or absence of a key attacking player.
Invalidation conditionThe official venue or kickoff time of the match has been changed.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Iceland has the market’s backing and a 1–1 draw from the first leg, but Estonia remains unbeaten in its first three matchdays and is playing at home in Tallinn.

Read the full analysis

The decisive limitation remains uncertainty over the goalkeepers, starters, and the true state of Estonia’s défense.

Recent form · Written before the match

Both teams played on 3 October and have approximately three days of recovery. No comparable series of xG, shots, or pressing has been established.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The match in this campaign on 26 September 2026 ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia. The previous matches mentioned are Estonia 1-1 Iceland in January 2023 and Iceland 1-0 Estonia in 2014.

The September 2026 match is the only immediately relevant precedent; the others are limited by changes in squads, coaches, and competitive context.

Absences and returns

Context & news

The detailed mechanisms of progression, box defending, and set pieces are not sufficiently documented to be established.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	122	1147	122
	73	1349	73

LineupsStarting XI

Estonie3-5-2

CoachJ. Henn

Islande4-2-3-1

CoachA. Gunnlaugsson

Full squad

Bench

Estonie

Substitutes12

Islande

Substitutes12

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

32 matches
32 matches
33 matches
33 matches
33 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

33 matches
22 matches
22 matches
23 matches
23 matches

CardsCards

62 matches
23 matches
23 matches
23 matches
23 matches

Player statistics

Estonie

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
6.52	0	0	90
6.66	0	1	90
6.96	0	0	90
7.31	0	0	90
6.65	2	2	90
6.64	0	1	68
6.24	0	2	90
6.44	0	0	61
6.06	0	0	61
6.31	1	4	90
6.37	0	2	61

See all (11)

Islande

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
7.45	0	0	90	0
6.59	0	3	90	0
7.09	0	0	90	0
7.33	0	1	67	0
6.69	0	0	90	1
7.2	0	1	67	0
7.2	0	1	90	0
6.44	1	1	90	0
6.27	0	1	90	0
6.62	0	2	90	0
6.25	0	0	90	0

See all (11)

Events

25'Yellow card · FoulIslande
61'SubstitutionEstonie
61'SubstitutionEstonie
61'SubstitutionEstonie
67'SubstitutionIslande
67'SubstitutionIslande
68'SubstitutionEstonie
84'Yellow card · DissentEstonie

See all (8)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

EstonieIslande

3Shots on target1

2Saves3

13Shots10

1Yellow cards↓1

3Corners7

10Fouls↓9

0Red cards↓0

All statistics (16)

Attack

8Shots inside the box7

5Shots outside the box3

1Blocked shots4

9Shots off target5

1Offsides0

Passing

38%Possession62%

274Accurate passes488

357Passes577

Discipline

9Free kicks10

Recent formUEFA Nations League

Estonie

WDD

vs Luxembourg1–0W
vs Bulgaria0–0D
vs Iceland1–1D

Islande

vs Luxembourg3–0W
vs Estonia1–1D

Head-to-head

D1–1last month · UEFA Nations League · League C - 1
D1–18 Jan 2023 · Friendlies · Friendlies 1

RecordEstonie · 0W · 2D · 0L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

6 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Stadium: A. Le Coq Arena
City: Tallinn
Referee: David Dickinson
Capacity: 14,405
Surface: Natural grass

All our results