Under 3.5 goals
Observed odds 1.55
Observed odds
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Fiorentina
Atalanta
Under 3.5 goals
Observed odds 1.55
Observed odds
Prediction: Under 3.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 68.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Under 3.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 68.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
The partial records report for Fiorentina: defeats against Genoa (1-2, October 10), Torino (1-2, September 5) and Frosinone (0-3, August 29), a draw against Napoli (1-1, September 20) and a victory against Venezia (4-2, September 11). For Atalanta: a victory against Venezia (3-1, October 12), followed by defeats against Juventus (0-2, September 20), Cagliari (1-2, September 12) and Roma (1-2, September 5), before a victory against Bologna (1-0, August 31).
These records constitute neither the last five matches nor a homogeneous measure of current form. The official report of October 12 describes early and set-piece efficiency for Atalanta, but also two shots hitting the woodwork by Venezia and a disallowed goal.
No comparable xG, shot volume or pressing indicator is retained. The sequence preceding the match is probably demanding for both teams: Fiorentina travel to Milan on October 25, while Atalanta host Frosinone before travelling to Florence.
The three recent documented meetings ended with Fiorentina-Atalanta 1-1 on May 22, 2026, Atalanta-Fiorentina 2-2 on November 30, 2025 and Fiorentina-Atalanta 1-1 on March 30, 2025. They provide context of evenly balanced matches, but their prédictive valeur is limited by possible changes in squads, coaches and form.
For the trip to Milan, Gazzetta reported seven Atalanta absences on 18 October: Pompei, Hien, Sulemana, Kossounou, Scalvini, Kessié and Raspadori; Bellanova was included in the squad. Their exact status for 29 October has not been confirmed.
Une source spécialisée also listed Arthur Atta and Fabiano Parisi for Fiorentina, as well as Scalvini, Bellanova, Pompei and Kossounou for Atalanta, without sufficiently direct and dated medical confirmation. Starting pitchers have not yet been announced.
Atalanta’s favorable scenario rests on its early efficiency, its runs into the box and set pieces observed against Venezia, as well as a possible drop in Fiorentina’s freshness after Milan. Fiorentina’s favorable scenario rests on home advantage, managing Atalanta’s travel and exploiting the spaces between full-back and centre-back if the Bergamo side’s défense is reshuffled.
Atalanta could nevertheless overturn this reading by recovering several defenders or repeating its efficiency from set pieces; Fiorentina could respond through its transitions if it retains a lineup close to its strongest XI. The league-table position still needs to be rechecked, as the available information is contradictory.
The match is scheduled for 29 October 2026 at 20:45 local time, at the Artemio Franchi in Florence, with Fiorentina as the home team and no neutral venue. No line-up, starting goalkeeper, or uncertain starter has been confirmed.
Rotation is plausible due to the congested schedule, but remains hypothetical.
Eleven from the previous match, against Inter on 25 October 2026
CoachP. Vanoli
Eleven from the previous match, against Frosinone on 25 October 2026
CoachM. Sarri
Bench · Out and doubtful
FiorentinaAtalanta
RecordFiorentina · 2W · 1D · 0L
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +13 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 10 | WWWDW | |
| 2 | 8 | +11 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 5 | WWWWD | |
| 3 | 8 | +13 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6 | DWDDW | |
| 4 | 8 | +9 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | WWDWD | |
| 5 | 8 | +7 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | WWDLW | |
| 6 | 8 | +4 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | DWLWD | |
| 7 | 8 | +3 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | WLDWL | |
| 8 | 8 | +2 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | WWWDL | |
| 9 | 8 | -3 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | LLDWW | |
| 10 | 8 | +3 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | DLWDW | |
| 11 | 8 | -1 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 15 | DLWLL | |
| 12 | 8 | -5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | LWLLW | |
| 13 | 8 | -2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | WLWDL | |
| 14 | 8 | -4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | LLDLW | |
| 15 | 8 | -3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | LWLWL | |
| 16 | 8 | -7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | WLWLD | |
| 17 | 8 | -9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | LLLLL | |
| 18 | 8 | -10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | LLLDW | |
| 19 | 8 | -10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 15 | LLLWL | |
| 20 | 8 | -11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 17 | LWLLL |