Prediction FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

FSV Mainz05

Bundesliga · GermanySeason 2026

Full time

2 – 3

Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:30

MEWA ARENA, Mainz

WerderBremen

Estimated probabilityD

7'0-1Niclas FüllkrugFrom the penalty spotWerder Bremen
25'0-2Niclas FüllkrugFrom the penalty spotWerder Bremen
33'1-2Anthony CaciFSV Mainz 05Assist · Sheraldo Becker
HT1-2
61'1-3Ludovit ReisWerder BremenAssist · Marco Grüll
63'2-3Lee Jae-SungFSV Mainz 05Assist · Anthony Caci

Marcelito prediction

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18+ only.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

Mainz won 1-0 at Schalke on October 17, after losing 4-3 to Leverkusen on October 10 and winning 4-3 at Mönchengladbach on September 19. Werder remained unbeaten in their last five documented matches: 3-1 against Leipzig, 1-1 at Cologne, 3-2 against Augsburg, 2-2 at Dortmund and 2-2 against Paderborn on October 17.

Both teams have approximately seven days of rest. No comparable xG, shot volume or pressing indicator is retained for this period.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The most recent documented meeting was Mainz's 2-0 victory at Bremen in March 2026. Mainz had also won 5-0 at Bremen on December 17, 2019.

At the MEWA ARENA, however, Mainz had remained without a win against Werder for five matches: two draws and three defeats, with their last success dating back to June 20, 2020. The March result is the most relevant reference point, but its prédictive valeur is limited by changes in the squads, form and context.

Context & news

Mainz can impose a tight match if its coordinated defensive block, well evaluated during the 1-0 win at Schalke, prevents crosses and balls toward Füllkrug; its attack has scored 14 goals after six matchdays, five of them by Phillip Tietz. Conversely, Werder can turn the trend around by keeping possession, winning duels and multiplying crosses and set pieces: eleven of its thirteen goals this season came after the break, it has come back from three 0-2 deficits and scored five times from set pieces, while Mainz had not yet conceded in that manner.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final11 sections availableUpdated 1 Nov 2026, 10:14 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+17	14	4	2	0	22	5	WDWWD
2	6	+7	14	4	2	0	11	4	DDWWW
3	5	+10	13	4	1	0	14	4	WDWWW
4	5	+6	10	3	1	1	14	8	WWDWL
5	6	+4	10	3	1	2	14	10	WLWLW
6	6	+1	10	3	1	2	12	11	WLDLW
7	6	+5	9	3	0	3	16	11	LWLWL
8	6	0	9	2	3	1	12	12	DDWDW
9	6	-9	9	3	0	3	6	15	WWWLL
10	6	+4	8	2	2	2	16	12	LDLDW
11	6	-6	8	2	2	2	10	16	WLDWL
12	6	-3	7	2	1	3	8	11	LWLDL
13	6	-2	6	2	0	4	8	10	LWLLW
14	6	-3	5	1	2	3	4	7	LLDWD
15	6	-4	5	1	2	3	5	9	DLWLL
16	6	-12	5	1	2	3	5	17	DWLLL
17	5	-4	3	1	0	4	9	13	LLWLL
18	5	-11	0	0	0	5	7	18	LLLLL

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

FSV Mainz 053-5-2

CoachU. Fischer

Werder Bremen4-2-3-1

CoachD. Thioune

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

FSV Mainz 05

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful4

Werder Bremen

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

56 matches
55 matches
45 matches
45 matches
45 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches

CardsCards

46 matches
45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
34 matches

Player statistics

FSV Mainz 05

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.81	0	0	0	0	90	1
6.74	0	0	0	1	85	0
6.49	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.91	0	0	1	2	90	0
8.59	1	1	1	1	75	0
7.4	1	0	2	3	75	0
6.81	0	0	0	0	91	0
6.5	0	0	1	2	90	0
5.43	0	0	1	2	90	1
7.43	0	1	1	2	85	0
6.34	0	0	1	5	90	0

See all (11)

Werder Bremen

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.56	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.73	0	0	1	1	90	0
6.66	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.1	0	0	0	1	90	0
5.79	0	0	0	0	46	0
8.17	1	0	1	2	90	1
6.56	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.91	0	0	0	2	59	0
6.35	0	0	2	2	72	0
6.42	0	1	1	1	90	1
7.3	2	0	3	4	81	0

See all (11)

Events

7'PenaltyWerder Bremen
25'PenaltyWerder Bremen
33'Goal · Assist: Sheraldo BeckerFSV Mainz 05
38'Yellow card · FoulWerder Bremen
45'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
59'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
61'Goal · Assist: Marco GrüllWerder Bremen
63'Goal · Assist: Anthony CaciFSV Mainz 05
69'Yellow card · FoulFSV Mainz 05
72'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
75'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
75'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
81'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
85'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
85'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
88'Yellow card · FoulFSV Mainz 05
89'Yellow card · FoulWerder Bremen
90+4'Yellow card · DissentFSV Mainz 05
90+1'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05

See all (19)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen

1.73Expected goals2.48

8Shots on target8

6Saves6

18Shots17

3Yellow cards↓2

6Corners7

7Fouls↓5

All statistics (17)

Attack

15Shots inside the box10

3Shots outside the box6

3Blocked shots5

7Shots off target4

2Offsides0

Passing

53%Possession47%

482Accurate passes435

556Passes509

Discipline

0Red cards↓0

5Free kicks7

Recent formBundesliga

FSV Mainz 05

WLWLW

vs FC Schalke 041–0W
vs Bayer Leverkusen3–4L
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3W
vs Eintracht Frankfurt1–3L
vs Hamburger SV5–0W

Werder Bremen

DDWDW

vs SC Paderborn 072–2D
vs Borussia Dortmund2–2D
vs FC Augsburg3–2W
vs 1. FC Köln1–1D
vs RB Leipzig3–1W

Head-to-head

W2–07 months ago · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 26
D1–11 Nov 2025 · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9
L0–131 Jan 2025 · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 20

RecordFSV Mainz 05 · 1W · 1D · 1L

Match information

Competition: Bundesliga
Stadium: MEWA ARENA
City: Mainz
Capacity: 34,034
Surface: Natural grass

All our results

Loading match details…

FSV Mainz05

Bundesliga · GermanySeason 2026

Full time

2 – 3

Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:30

MEWA ARENA, Mainz

WerderBremen

Estimated probabilityD

7'0-1Niclas FüllkrugFrom the penalty spotWerder Bremen
25'0-2Niclas FüllkrugFrom the penalty spotWerder Bremen
33'1-2Anthony CaciFSV Mainz 05Assist · Sheraldo Becker
HT1-2
61'1-3Ludovit ReisWerder BremenAssist · Marco Grüll
63'2-3Lee Jae-SungFSV Mainz 05Assist · Anthony Caci

Marcelito prediction

This prediction is for members

Create your free account to see the pick, the odds and the probability for every match.

Every prediction, free
Pick, odds and probability
No card required

Create my free account I already have an account

18+ only.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

Both teams have approximately seven days of rest. No comparable xG, shot volume or pressing indicator is retained for this period.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The most recent documented meeting was Mainz's 2-0 victory at Bremen in March 2026. Mainz had also won 5-0 at Bremen on December 17, 2019.

Context & news

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final11 sections availableUpdated 1 Nov 2026, 10:14 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+17	14	4	2	0	22	5	WDWWD
2	6	+7	14	4	2	0	11	4	DDWWW
3	5	+10	13	4	1	0	14	4	WDWWW
4	5	+6	10	3	1	1	14	8	WWDWL
5	6	+4	10	3	1	2	14	10	WLWLW
6	6	+1	10	3	1	2	12	11	WLDLW
7	6	+5	9	3	0	3	16	11	LWLWL
8	6	0	9	2	3	1	12	12	DDWDW
9	6	-9	9	3	0	3	6	15	WWWLL
10	6	+4	8	2	2	2	16	12	LDLDW
11	6	-6	8	2	2	2	10	16	WLDWL
12	6	-3	7	2	1	3	8	11	LWLDL
13	6	-2	6	2	0	4	8	10	LWLLW
14	6	-3	5	1	2	3	4	7	LLDWD
15	6	-4	5	1	2	3	5	9	DLWLL
16	6	-12	5	1	2	3	5	17	DWLLL
17	5	-4	3	1	0	4	9	13	LLWLL
18	5	-11	0	0	0	5	7	18	LLLLL

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

FSV Mainz 053-5-2

CoachU. Fischer

Werder Bremen4-2-3-1

CoachD. Thioune

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

FSV Mainz 05

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful4

Werder Bremen

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

56 matches
55 matches
45 matches
45 matches
45 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches

CardsCards

46 matches
45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
34 matches

Player statistics

FSV Mainz 05

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.81	0	0	0	0	90	1
6.74	0	0	0	1	85	0
6.49	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.91	0	0	1	2	90	0
8.59	1	1	1	1	75	0
7.4	1	0	2	3	75	0
6.81	0	0	0	0	91	0
6.5	0	0	1	2	90	0
5.43	0	0	1	2	90	1
7.43	0	1	1	2	85	0
6.34	0	0	1	5	90	0

See all (11)

Werder Bremen

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.56	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.73	0	0	1	1	90	0
6.66	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.1	0	0	0	1	90	0
5.79	0	0	0	0	46	0
8.17	1	0	1	2	90	1
6.56	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.91	0	0	0	2	59	0
6.35	0	0	2	2	72	0
6.42	0	1	1	1	90	1
7.3	2	0	3	4	81	0

See all (11)

Events

7'PenaltyWerder Bremen
25'PenaltyWerder Bremen
33'Goal · Assist: Sheraldo BeckerFSV Mainz 05
38'Yellow card · FoulWerder Bremen
45'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
59'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
61'Goal · Assist: Marco GrüllWerder Bremen
63'Goal · Assist: Anthony CaciFSV Mainz 05
69'Yellow card · FoulFSV Mainz 05
72'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
75'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
75'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
81'SubstitutionWerder Bremen
85'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
85'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05
88'Yellow card · FoulFSV Mainz 05
89'Yellow card · FoulWerder Bremen
90+4'Yellow card · DissentFSV Mainz 05
90+1'SubstitutionFSV Mainz 05

See all (19)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen

1.73Expected goals2.48

8Shots on target8

6Saves6

18Shots17

3Yellow cards↓2

6Corners7

7Fouls↓5

All statistics (17)

Attack

15Shots inside the box10

3Shots outside the box6

3Blocked shots5

7Shots off target4

2Offsides0

Passing

53%Possession47%

482Accurate passes435

556Passes509

Discipline

0Red cards↓0

5Free kicks7

Recent formBundesliga

FSV Mainz 05

WLWLW

vs FC Schalke 041–0W
vs Bayer Leverkusen3–4L
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3W
vs Eintracht Frankfurt1–3L
vs Hamburger SV5–0W

Werder Bremen

DDWDW

vs SC Paderborn 072–2D
vs Borussia Dortmund2–2D
vs FC Augsburg3–2W
vs 1. FC Köln1–1D
vs RB Leipzig3–1W

Head-to-head

W2–07 months ago · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 26
D1–11 Nov 2025 · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9
L0–131 Jan 2025 · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 20

RecordFSV Mainz 05 · 1W · 1D · 1L

Match information

Competition: Bundesliga
Stadium: MEWA ARENA
City: Mainz
Capacity: 34,034
Surface: Natural grass

All our results