Prediction Grèce – Allemagne: analysis, odds and forecast

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

🇬🇷Grèce

Full time

0 - 0

Ligue des nations Sunday, 4 October 2026 · 20:45

🇩🇪Allemagne

PickPlus de 2.5 buts
Estimated probability57%

Mi-temps : 0–0

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoLost

Over 2.5 goals

Price at publication 1.72

1xBet1.71

Pinnacle1.68

Bet3651.65

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskApproximately three days of recovery for both teams, with a potentially more penalizing physical workload for Greece after the 2-2 draw against the Netherlands.
RiskTzolis is highly doubtful after his muscle injury; the German absences of Havertz and Musiala are not directly confirmed by the DFB.
RiskThe goalkeepers, official lineups and final suspensions have not yet been announced.

View more data

RiskThe complete standings and the precise regulatory consequences of qualification are not established.
RiskThe available archives do not allow the five most recent matches to be reliably reconstructed or advanced metrics to be compared.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineup confirms several major Greek absences, particularly in midfield or défense, or the absence of Tzolakis or Pavlidis.
Invalidation conditionThe German lineup confirms the absence of Wirtz, Gnabry, or the selected goalkeeper.
Invalidation conditionThe lineups show Germany with its main creators and a clearly more attacking approach, or a heavily reshuffled Greek block.
Invalidation conditionThe venue or match conditions change, or a significant physical issue arises before kickoff.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Greece approaches this duel with home advantage at Toumba, a 1-0 victory in Germany on 27 September, and the lead of Group A2 with 7 points.

Read the full analysis

Greece approaches this duel with home advantage at Toumba, a 1-0 victory in Germany on 27 September, and the lead of Group A2 with 7 points. Its most credible mechanism relies on a compact block and rapid transitions, but this advantage is limited by the short recovery period and Tzolis’s muscle injury, making him highly doubtful.

Recent form · Written before the match

Greece remains unbeaten in the group: a 2-1 victory in Serbia on 24 September, a 1-0 victory in Germany on 27 September, then a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands at home on 1 October after leading 2-0. Germany drew 1-1 in the Netherlands on 24 September, lost 0-1 to Greece on 27 September, then beat Serbia 2-0 at home on 1 October.

Both teams have around three days of rest; Germany must also travel to Thessaloniki. No sufficiently sourced comparable xG, shot-volume, or pressing indicator is retained.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The immediate previous meeting was Germany-Greece 0-1, on 27 September 2026, in this same competition. The Goal page also mentions Germany-Greece 2-1 in a friendly on 7 June, Germany-Greece 4-2 at the Euros on 22 June, Greece-Germany 2-4 in World Cup qualifying on 28 March, and Germany-Greece 2-0 in that qualifying campaign on 2 September.

These older results have limited prédictive valeur due to changes in squads, coaches, and context; even the recent 0-1 was played in Germany.

Absences and returns

Tzolis came off with a muscle injury in the 18th minute against the Netherlands on October 1, according to the EPO; he is highly doubtful according to Matt Law, without official medical confirmation from the federation. Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala are reported to be absent for physical reasons, but without direct confirmation from the DFB for this match.

The precise condition of the other players has not been confirmed.

Context & news

The match is the 4th matchday of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League league phase, Group A2, on October 4, 2026 at 18:45 UTC at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki, Greece’s home ground. Greece are top with 7 points, while Germany are third with 4 points; the precise regulatory consequences for qualification are not established here.

Greek scenario: a low or compact block, transitions and exploitation of the channels, reinforced by the venue and knowledge of the previous 1-0 result. German scenario: increased circulation between the lines and counter-pressing to take advantage of a possible Greek physical decline and the spaces left after the initial advantage; this plan would nevertheless be less effective if Havertz and Musiala’s absences were confirmed.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	41	1499	41
	13	1718	13

LineupsStarting XI

Grèce4-4-2

CoachI. Jovanović

Allemagne4-4-2

CoachJ. Klopp

Full squad

Bench

Grèce

Substitutes12

Allemagne

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Grèce

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
7.11	0	0	90	0
6.01	0	0	90	1
6.96	1	2	78	0
6.95	0	0	90	0
6.46	0	1	90	1
6.1	1	2	90	0
6.39	0	0	68	0
6.24	0	0	90	1
6.65	0	0	45	0
6.4	0	0	45	0
6.27	0	0	88	0

See all (11)

Allemagne

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
7.08	0	0	90	0
6.03	0	1	90	1
6.9	0	1	90	1
6.7	0	1	90	1
7.65	1	2	90	0
6.57	1	2	63	0
7.2	0	0	90	0
7.2	0	2	83	0
6.83	2	7	83	0
6.58	0	5	90	0
6.22	0	0	63	0

See all (11)

Events

23'Yellow card · FoulGrèce
32'VARAllemagne
36'Yellow card · FoulAllemagne
45'SubstitutionGrèce
45'SubstitutionGrèce
53'Yellow cardGrèce
63'SubstitutionAllemagne
63'SubstitutionAllemagne
66'Yellow card · FoulAllemagne
68'SubstitutionGrèce
73'Yellow card · DissentGrèce
78'SubstitutionGrèce
79'Yellow card · FoulGrèce
83'SubstitutionAllemagne
83'SubstitutionAllemagne
88'SubstitutionGrèce
90'Yellow card · FoulAllemagne

See all (17)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

GrèceAllemagne

2Shots on target4

4Saves2

5Shots21

3Yellow cards↓3

2Corners3

8Fouls↓17

0Red cards↓0

All statistics (16)

Attack

5Shots inside the box10

3Shots off target10

1Offsides1

0Shots outside the box11

0Blocked shots7

Passing

30%Possession70%

185Accurate passes572

267Passes640

Discipline

15Free kicks8

Head-to-head

L0–1last month · UEFA Nations League · League A - 2
W2–17 Jun 2024 · Friendlies · Friendlies 1
W4–222 Jun 2012 · Euro Championship · Quarter-finals

RecordGrèce · 2W · 0D · 1L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

4 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Venue: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Clement Turpin

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

🇬🇷Grèce

Full time

0 - 0

Ligue des nations Sunday, 4 October 2026 · 20:45

🇩🇪Allemagne

PickPlus de 2.5 buts
Estimated probability57%

Mi-temps : 0–0

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoLost

Over 2.5 goals

Price at publication 1.72

1xBet1.71

Pinnacle1.68

Bet3651.65

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskApproximately three days of recovery for both teams, with a potentially more penalizing physical workload for Greece after the 2-2 draw against the Netherlands.
RiskTzolis is highly doubtful after his muscle injury; the German absences of Havertz and Musiala are not directly confirmed by the DFB.
RiskThe goalkeepers, official lineups and final suspensions have not yet been announced.

View more data

RiskThe complete standings and the precise regulatory consequences of qualification are not established.
RiskThe available archives do not allow the five most recent matches to be reliably reconstructed or advanced metrics to be compared.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineup confirms several major Greek absences, particularly in midfield or défense, or the absence of Tzolakis or Pavlidis.
Invalidation conditionThe German lineup confirms the absence of Wirtz, Gnabry, or the selected goalkeeper.
Invalidation conditionThe lineups show Germany with its main creators and a clearly more attacking approach, or a heavily reshuffled Greek block.
Invalidation conditionThe venue or match conditions change, or a significant physical issue arises before kickoff.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Greece approaches this duel with home advantage at Toumba, a 1-0 victory in Germany on 27 September, and the lead of Group A2 with 7 points.

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

Both teams have around three days of rest; Germany must also travel to Thessaloniki. No sufficiently sourced comparable xG, shot-volume, or pressing indicator is retained.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

These older results have limited prédictive valeur due to changes in squads, coaches, and context; even the recent 0-1 was played in Germany.

Absences and returns

The precise condition of the other players has not been confirmed.

Context & news

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	41	1499	41
	13	1718	13

LineupsStarting XI

Grèce4-4-2

CoachI. Jovanović

Allemagne4-4-2

CoachJ. Klopp

Full squad

Bench

Grèce

Substitutes12

Allemagne

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Grèce

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
7.11	0	0	90	0
6.01	0	0	90	1
6.96	1	2	78	0
6.95	0	0	90	0
6.46	0	1	90	1
6.1	1	2	90	0
6.39	0	0	68	0
6.24	0	0	90	1
6.65	0	0	45	0
6.4	0	0	45	0
6.27	0	0	88	0

See all (11)

Allemagne

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
7.08	0	0	90	0
6.03	0	1	90	1
6.9	0	1	90	1
6.7	0	1	90	1
7.65	1	2	90	0
6.57	1	2	63	0
7.2	0	0	90	0
7.2	0	2	83	0
6.83	2	7	83	0
6.58	0	5	90	0
6.22	0	0	63	0

See all (11)

Events

23'Yellow card · FoulGrèce
32'VARAllemagne
36'Yellow card · FoulAllemagne
45'SubstitutionGrèce
45'SubstitutionGrèce
53'Yellow cardGrèce
63'SubstitutionAllemagne
63'SubstitutionAllemagne
66'Yellow card · FoulAllemagne
68'SubstitutionGrèce
73'Yellow card · DissentGrèce
78'SubstitutionGrèce
79'Yellow card · FoulGrèce
83'SubstitutionAllemagne
83'SubstitutionAllemagne
88'SubstitutionGrèce
90'Yellow card · FoulAllemagne

See all (17)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

GrèceAllemagne

2Shots on target4

4Saves2

5Shots21

3Yellow cards↓3

2Corners3

8Fouls↓17

0Red cards↓0

All statistics (16)

Attack

5Shots inside the box10

3Shots off target10

1Offsides1

0Shots outside the box11

0Blocked shots7

Passing

30%Possession70%

185Accurate passes572

267Passes640

Discipline

15Free kicks8

Head-to-head

L0–1last month · UEFA Nations League · League A - 2
W2–17 Jun 2024 · Friendlies · Friendlies 1
W4–222 Jun 2012 · Euro Championship · Quarter-finals

RecordGrèce · 2W · 0D · 1L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

4 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Venue: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Clement Turpin

All our results