Italy wins
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Italie
TurquieTimestamped proof
Italy wins
Pinnacle1.471xBet1.46Bet3651.44Archived odds
Italy comes in with a clear contextual advantage after its 4-1 victory in Türkiye and its 1-1 draw in France, while Türkiye is coming off three defeats. The expected mechanism is Italian pressure and transitions against a Türkiye side forced to attack.
Read the full analysisItaly comes in with a clear contextual advantage after its 4-1 victory in Türkiye and its 1-1 draw in France, while Türkiye is coming off three defeats. The expected mechanism is Italian pressure and transitions against a Türkiye side forced to attack.
The decisive limitation remains the absence of lineups, confirmed goalkeepers, and complete medical information.
Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium on September 25, won 4-1 in Türkiye on September 28, then drew 1-1 in France on October 2. Türkiye lost 0-1 to France, 1-4 to Italy, then 0-3 in Belgium over the same period.
These results were published by UEFA on October 2. The sequence is close but does not provide a reliable quantitative comparison of chances, shots, or pressing.
Both teams play four matches in a tight international window; the Bursa-Paris travel and Italy’s load management add physical uncertainty.
Türkiye-Italy ended in a 4-1 Italian victory on September 28, 2026, in the same Nations League phase. The previous explicitly mentioned meeting was Italy-Türkiye 0-0 in a friendly on June 4, 2024.
The 4-1 is the most relevant precedent, but a single recent match does not guarantee the same scenario; fatigue and changes to the starting lineups limit its significance. The 0-0 in 2024 is far less prédictive.
On 1 October, nine Italian players - Ahanor, Cambiaghi, Coppola, Ghilardi, Samuele Inacio, Kouadio, Mandragora, Pessina and Alessandro Romano - remained in Coverciano to limit their travel to Paris; this indicates workload management rather than a medical absence. The injured and suspended players, starting goalkeepers, and confirmed medical statuses of both teams have not been established.
Raspadori’s status remains uncertain.
After three matchdays, France have 7 points, Belgium 6, Italy 4 and Türkiye 0; Italy remain in contention for the top two places, while Türkiye must respond. Favorable scenario for Italy: their pressing and transitions exploit Türkiye’s obligation to attack, with an attacking contribution already observed from Bastoni, Frattesi, Kayode and Francesco Pio Esposito in the 4-1.
Opposite scenario: Arda Güler and the Turkish attackers find spaces between the lines and behind Italy’s full-backs, especially if Italy lower their intensity after the travel and run of matches. This Turkish mechanism remains to be confirmed, as Türkiye have conceded eight goals in their last three matches.
| Team | FIFA | FIFA points | Prev. rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1713 | 15 | |
| 31 | 1564 | 31 |
CoachR. Mancini
CoachV. Montella
Bench
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
ItalieTurquie
RecordItalie · 0W · 1D · 2L
This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.
