Lille +0.5
Observed odds 1.51
Observed odds
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Lille
Lens
Lille +0.5
Observed odds 1.51
Observed odds
Prediction: Lille +0.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 70.2 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Lille +0.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 70.2 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
The partial archives available do not constitute the last five matches. Lille lost 2-4 to Galatasaray on October 21, drew 1-1 with Brest on October 17, lost 0-3 to Arsenal on October 13, beat Le Havre 1-0 on October 10, and lost 2-1 at Nice on September 20.
Lens lost 0-3 at Bruges on October 21, beat Troyes 3-1 on October 17, lost 0-2 to Sporting CP on October 13, beat Lyon 2-1 on October 9, and lost 2-1 at Monaco on September 18. No consistent, usable xG, shot-volume, or pressing indicator is provided.
Both teams have therefore faced a congested European schedule, and the exact quality of their current form remains only partially documented.
The recent head-to-head matches mentioned are Lille’s 1-0 victory over Lens on March 30, 2025, and Lille’s 2-1 victory on March 29, 2024. These precedents are of limited significance for this match, as the squads, coaches, and context have changed.
No verified standings or first-leg score for the 2026-2027 season has been established; this match is the first of the two fixtures between the clubs.
Une source spécialisée probably lists Ethan Mbappé as suspended, while Osame Sahraoui, Ayase Ueda, Tiago Santos and Hamza Igamane are unavailable for Lille; for Lens, Ismaëlo Ganiou, Jonathan Gradit, Abdallah Sima, Maik Nawrocki and Jhoanner Chávez are listed as injured. These statuses are not confirmed by a medical statement or a press conference specific to the derby.
On 7 October, Lens indicated that Maik Nawrocki was unavailable until the end of the season and that Abdallah Sima had returned from international duty injured, but this information is not sufficient to establish their status on 30 October.
Scenario favorable to Lille: home advantage and Lens’s potential absences in defensive and attacking areas could have an impact, while Lens’s European and domestic schedule could limit recovery. Scenario favorable to Lens: its 3-1 win at Troyes and 2-1 win against Lyon show a documented recent run of form, and its transitions could benefit from Lille turnovers or advanced full-backs after a European sequence.
However, each team’s defeat in Europe on 21 October prevents establishing a clear physical advantage. Rotation, formation and returns remain unknown.
The official lineups, starting goalkeeper, and players whose starting status is uncertain have not yet been announced. Lille is confirmed to be at home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy; no neutral venue is indicated.
Eleven from the previous match, against Monaco on 25 October 2026
CoachDavide Ancelotti
Eleven from the previous match, against Paris FC on 24 October 2026
CoachYannick Cahuzac
Bench
LilleLens
RecordLille · 3W · 0D · 0L
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 8 | +4 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | WLWLW | |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | DDWLW | |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | DLDWD | |
| 5 | 8 | +6 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | LWLWD | |
| 6 | 8 | +4 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | LWLWD | |
| 7 | 8 | +4 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | WWWLD | |
| 8 | 8 | +5 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | WWWLL | |
| 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | DWWLD | |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | WLWWL | |
| 11 | 8 | +1 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | DWDWD | |
| 12 | 8 | -6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | DWLWW | |
| 13 | 8 | +2 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | LDWLL | |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | DLLWD | |
| 15 | 8 | -5 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | DLLWD | |
| 16 | 8 | -6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | LLLLD | |
| 17 | 8 | -11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | DLLLL | |
| 18 | 8 | -7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | LLLLD |