Over 2.5 goals
Archived odds 1.25
Archived odds
Loading match details…
This content was machine-translated from the French version.
RealMadrid
RBLeipzig
Timestamped proof
Over 2.5 goals
Archived odds 1.25
Archived odds
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 78.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Over 2.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 78.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Real Madrid beat Inter 2-1 at home on September 8, then Roma 4-3 away on October 14. Leipzig lost 4-1 at Como on September 10 before beating PSV 1-0 on October 13.
These European results do not constitute the last five matches in all competitions. The complete domestic form, rest days, recent travel, and comparable shooting, xG, or pressing metrics have not been established.
The match is the 3rd matchday of the UEFA Champions League 2026/27 league phase, at the Santiago Bernabéu, on October 21, 2026; the points stakes and qualification situation remain unknown.
In the 2022/23 Champions League, Real Madrid beat Leipzig 2-0 on September 14, 2022, then Leipzig won 3-2 against Real Madrid on October 25, 2022. The record is therefore split across these two meetings.
Their prédictive valeur is limited, as the squads, coaches, and competitive context have changed; these precedents should not take precedence over information from 2026.
The scenario favorable to Madrid rests on the Bernabéu advantage, its two documented European victories and a concrete threat from set pieces: against Roma, three goals came from sequences linked to Güler’s corners. The opposing scenario is that of a Leipzig capable of exploiting Madrid’s turnovers through rapid transitions or targeted pressing, after Madrid conceded three goals and trailed 3-1 until the 83rd minute against Roma.
Leipzig’s 1-0 victory against PSV supports this possibility, but documents neither the quality of the chances nor the repeatability of the plan. The standings before the matchday have not been established.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | +5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | +5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | DWW | |
| 4 | 2 | +7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | WW | |
| 5 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | LWW | |
| 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | WLW | |
| 7 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | WW | |
| 8 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | WW | |
| 9 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | WW | |
| 10 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | WW | |
| 11 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | WLW | |
| 12 | 2 | +5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | DW | |
| 13 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | WLD | |
| 14 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | WD | |
| 15 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | DWL | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | WLD | |
| 17 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | LW | |
| 18 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | LW | |
| 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | LWL | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WL | |
| 21 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | LW | |
| 22 | 3 | -2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WLL | |
| 23 | 2 | -2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WL | |
| 24 | 2 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WL | |
| 25 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | LWL | |
| 26 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | LWL | |
| 27 | 3 | -5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | LLW | |
| 28 | 3 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | DLD | |
| 29 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | DL | |
| 30 | 3 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | DLL | |
| 31 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | LL | |
| 32 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | LL | |
| 33 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LLL | |
| 34 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | LL | |
| 35 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | LL | |
| 36 | 3 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | LLL |
CoachJosé Mourinho
CoachM. Demichelis
Bench · Out and doubtful
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 78 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 73 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Real MadridRB Leipzig
RecordReal Madrid · 1W · 1D · 1L