Prediction SC Paderborn 07 – Hamburger SV: analysis, odds and forecast

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MARCELITOSports predictions

SC Paderborn07

Bundesliga · GermanySeason 2026

Full time

1 – 0

Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:30

Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

HamburgerSV

Estimated probabilityD

HT0-0
88'1-0Rayan PhilippeSC Paderborn 07Assist · Felix Götze

Marcelito prediction

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Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

Paderborn are coming off a 2-2 draw in Bremen on October 17, a 0-2 loss to Stuttgart on October 10, a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim on September 20, a 0-3 loss in Dortmund on September 12, and a 0-1 loss to Freiburg on September 5. HSV won 1-0 against Stuttgart on October 17, 3-2 at Hoffenheim on October 10, and 2-1 against Cologne on September 19, before two 0-5 losses to Leipzig and then Mainz on September 13 and 6.

Hamburg come into this match on a three-game winning streak. SPORT1 assigns Paderborn 5.8 xG and 18 shots on target for the season, without a detailed provider and without any possible comparison with the other figures.

Both teams played seven days ago; HSV’s away trip is established, but its actual fatigue is not.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The two Bundesliga 2014/15 meetings ended in two 3-0 wins for the away team. The last cited meeting was a 2-0 Paderborn win over HSV in the 2.

Bundesliga, 2024/25 season. Paderborn are also stated to be unbeaten in the last five official matches against Hamburg, with two draws and three wins.

These precedents remain of limited relevance, as the divisions, squads, and coaches have changed.

Context & news

Paderborn can impose its prepared sequences at home, use its two strikers against the back three, and look for crosses and second balls; Tigges-Marino are presented as its main recent attacking contributors. Conversely, HSV can reverse the trend by resisting the initial press and attacking the spaces behind the wing-backs: it is coming off three victories, Muheim has scored on each of the last two matchdays, and its coach emphasizes transitions as well as a low tendency to concede.

The absences of Remberg and Vušković may nevertheless reduce Hamburg’s stability.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final11 sections availableUpdated 1 Nov 2026, 09:07 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+17	14	4	2	0	22	5	WDWWD
2	6	+7	14	4	2	0	11	4	DDWWW
3	5	+10	13	4	1	0	14	4	WDWWW
4	5	+6	10	3	1	1	14	8	WWDWL
5	6	+4	10	3	1	2	14	10	WLWLW
6	6	+1	10	3	1	2	12	11	WLDLW
7	6	+5	9	3	0	3	16	11	LWLWL
8	6	0	9	2	3	1	12	12	DDWDW
9	6	-9	9	3	0	3	6	15	WWWLL
10	6	+4	8	2	2	2	16	12	LDLDW
11	6	-6	8	2	2	2	10	16	WLDWL
12	6	-3	7	2	1	3	8	11	LWLDL
13	6	-2	6	2	0	4	8	10	LWLLW
14	6	-3	5	1	2	3	4	7	LLDWD
15	6	-4	5	1	2	3	5	9	DLWLL
16	6	-12	5	1	2	3	5	17	DWLLL
17	5	-4	3	1	0	4	9	13	LLWLL
18	5	-11	0	0	0	5	7	18	LLLLL

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

SC Paderborn 073-5-2

CoachR. Kettemann

Hamburger SV3-5-2

CoachM. Polzin

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

SC Paderborn 07

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful5

Hamburger SV

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful2

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

56 matches
55 matches
45 matches
45 matches
45 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches

CardsCards

46 matches
45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
34 matches

Player statistics

SC Paderborn 07

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
6.87	0	0	90	0
6.49	0	0	62	1
7.89	0	1	90	0
7.02	0	1	90	0
6.29	0	1	90	0
6.25	0	1	70	0
6.56	2	4	90	0
6.64	0	0	45	0
7.2	2	2	90	0
6.15	0	0	79	0
6.45	1	1	62	0

See all (11)

Hamburger SV

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
6.95	0	0	90	0
5.53	0	0	90	1
6.92	1	1	90	0
6.65	0	0	90	0
5.8	0	2	90	0
6.29	0	0	90	0
6.58	0	1	71	0
6.16	0	0	71	0
6.33	0	1	90	0
6.7	0	0	45	0
6.4	0	1	13	0

See all (11)

Events

13'SubstitutionHamburger SV
45'SubstitutionHamburger SV
45'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
53'Yellow card · FoulHamburger SV
58'Yellow card · FoulSC Paderborn 07
62'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
62'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
70'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
71'SubstitutionHamburger SV
71'SubstitutionHamburger SV
79'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
87'Yellow card · Time wastingHamburger SV
88'Goal · Assist: Felix GötzeSC Paderborn 07
89'Yellow card · DissentHamburger SV
89'SubstitutionHamburger SV

See all (15)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV

1.18Expected goals0.45

6Shots on target1

1Saves5

16Shots9

1Yellow cards↓2

6Corners3

12Fouls↓15

All statistics (17)

Attack

9Shots inside the box3

7Shots outside the box6

4Blocked shots3

6Shots off target5

2Offsides0

Passing

62%Possession38%

449Accurate passes242

532Passes334

Discipline

0Red cards↓0

15Free kicks11

Recent formBundesliga

SC Paderborn 07

DLWLL

vs Werder Bremen2–2D
vs VfB Stuttgart0–2L
vs 1899 Hoffenheim3–1W
vs Borussia Dortmund0–3L
vs SC Freiburg0–1L

Hamburger SV

WWWLL

vs VfB Stuttgart1–0W
vs 1899 Hoffenheim3–2W
vs 1. FC Köln2–1W
vs RB Leipzig0–5L
vs FSV Mainz 050–5L

Head-to-head

W2–02 Mar 2025
D2–228 Sept 2024
W1–010 May 2024

RecordSC Paderborn 07 · 2W · 1D · 0L

Match information

Competition: Bundesliga
Stadium: Home Deluxe Arena
City: Paderborn
Capacity: 15,306
Surface: Natural grass

All our results

Loading match details…

SC Paderborn07

Bundesliga · GermanySeason 2026

Full time

1 – 0

Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:30

Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

HamburgerSV

Estimated probabilityD

HT0-0
88'1-0Rayan PhilippeSC Paderborn 07Assist · Felix Götze

Marcelito prediction

This prediction is for members

Create your free account to see the pick, the odds and the probability for every match.

Every prediction, free
Pick, odds and probability
No card required

Create my free account I already have an account

18+ only.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

Both teams played seven days ago; HSV’s away trip is established, but its actual fatigue is not.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The two Bundesliga 2014/15 meetings ended in two 3-0 wins for the away team. The last cited meeting was a 2-0 Paderborn win over HSV in the 2.

Bundesliga, 2024/25 season. Paderborn are also stated to be unbeaten in the last five official matches against Hamburg, with two draws and three wins.

These precedents remain of limited relevance, as the divisions, squads, and coaches have changed.

Context & news

The absences of Remberg and Vušković may nevertheless reduce Hamburg’s stability.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final11 sections availableUpdated 1 Nov 2026, 09:07 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+17	14	4	2	0	22	5	WDWWD
2	6	+7	14	4	2	0	11	4	DDWWW
3	5	+10	13	4	1	0	14	4	WDWWW
4	5	+6	10	3	1	1	14	8	WWDWL
5	6	+4	10	3	1	2	14	10	WLWLW
6	6	+1	10	3	1	2	12	11	WLDLW
7	6	+5	9	3	0	3	16	11	LWLWL
8	6	0	9	2	3	1	12	12	DDWDW
9	6	-9	9	3	0	3	6	15	WWWLL
10	6	+4	8	2	2	2	16	12	LDLDW
11	6	-6	8	2	2	2	10	16	WLDWL
12	6	-3	7	2	1	3	8	11	LWLDL
13	6	-2	6	2	0	4	8	10	LWLLW
14	6	-3	5	1	2	3	4	7	LLDWD
15	6	-4	5	1	2	3	5	9	DLWLL
16	6	-12	5	1	2	3	5	17	DWLLL
17	5	-4	3	1	0	4	9	13	LLWLL
18	5	-11	0	0	0	5	7	18	LLLLL

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

SC Paderborn 073-5-2

CoachR. Kettemann

Hamburger SV3-5-2

CoachM. Polzin

Full squad

Bench · Out and doubtful

SC Paderborn 07

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful5

Hamburger SV

Substitutes9

Out and doubtful2

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

56 matches
55 matches
45 matches
45 matches
45 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches
35 matches

CardsCards

46 matches
45 matches
35 matches
35 matches
34 matches

Player statistics

SC Paderborn 07

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
6.87	0	0	90	0
6.49	0	0	62	1
7.89	0	1	90	0
7.02	0	1	90	0
6.29	0	1	90	0
6.25	0	1	70	0
6.56	2	4	90	0
6.64	0	0	45	0
7.2	2	2	90	0
6.15	0	0	79	0
6.45	1	1	62	0

See all (11)

Hamburger SV

Rating	SoT	Shots	Min
6.95	0	0	90	0
5.53	0	0	90	1
6.92	1	1	90	0
6.65	0	0	90	0
5.8	0	2	90	0
6.29	0	0	90	0
6.58	0	1	71	0
6.16	0	0	71	0
6.33	0	1	90	0
6.7	0	0	45	0
6.4	0	1	13	0

See all (11)

Events

13'SubstitutionHamburger SV
45'SubstitutionHamburger SV
45'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
53'Yellow card · FoulHamburger SV
58'Yellow card · FoulSC Paderborn 07
62'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
62'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
70'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
71'SubstitutionHamburger SV
71'SubstitutionHamburger SV
79'SubstitutionSC Paderborn 07
87'Yellow card · Time wastingHamburger SV
88'Goal · Assist: Felix GötzeSC Paderborn 07
89'Yellow card · DissentHamburger SV
89'SubstitutionHamburger SV

See all (15)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV

1.18Expected goals0.45

6Shots on target1

1Saves5

16Shots9

1Yellow cards↓2

6Corners3

12Fouls↓15

All statistics (17)

Attack

9Shots inside the box3

7Shots outside the box6

4Blocked shots3

6Shots off target5

2Offsides0

Passing

62%Possession38%

449Accurate passes242

532Passes334

Discipline

0Red cards↓0

15Free kicks11

Recent formBundesliga

SC Paderborn 07

DLWLL

vs Werder Bremen2–2D
vs VfB Stuttgart0–2L
vs 1899 Hoffenheim3–1W
vs Borussia Dortmund0–3L
vs SC Freiburg0–1L

Hamburger SV

WWWLL

vs VfB Stuttgart1–0W
vs 1899 Hoffenheim3–2W
vs 1. FC Köln2–1W
vs RB Leipzig0–5L
vs FSV Mainz 050–5L

Head-to-head

W2–02 Mar 2025
D2–228 Sept 2024
W1–010 May 2024

RecordSC Paderborn 07 · 2W · 1D · 0L

Match information

Competition: Bundesliga
Stadium: Home Deluxe Arena
City: Paderborn
Capacity: 15,306
Surface: Natural grass

All our results