Prediction Gable Steveson – Elisha Ellison, 11 July: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

UFC 329

Heavyweight

against

Sunday, 12 July 202602:15

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Fight finished

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18+ only.

4
Wins: 0
Losses: 0
Draws

Age: 26
Height: 180 cm
Reach: 188 cm
Weight: 109.3 kg
Stance: Orthodox

Jackson-Wink MMA

« Snack Panther »

5
Wins: 3
Losses: 0
Draws

Age: 29
Height: 183 cm
Reach: 198 cm
Weight: 107.0 kg
Stance: Orthodox

Combat Sport and Fitness

Fighting style analysis

Gable Steveson

Key stats (career averages)

4.89Significant strikes / min0.94
71%Significant strike accuracy38%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min0.00
0%Takedown accuracy0%
0.00Submissions / 15 min0.00
5.89Strikes absorbed / min15.79
59%Significant strike defense34%

Each axis comes from a measured career average, scaled to a fixed 0–100 range.

Elisha Ellison

Tactical analysis

Measured advantages of Gable Steveson

Puissance de frappe : 100 % de victoires par KO
Volume de frappe élevé (4.89 coups significatifs / min)
Précision de frappe (71 %)
Finisseur : 100 % de combats terminés avant la limite

Measured advantages of Elisha Ellison

Puissance de frappe : 80 % de victoires par KO
Excellente défense de takedown (100 %)
Avantage d'allonge : +10 cm
Finisseur : 100 % de combats terminés avant la limite

Watch out for

Encaisse beaucoup (5.89 coups / min)

Watch out for

Reste sur 2 défaites
Encaisse beaucoup (15.79 coups / min)
2 défaites par KO : menton à surveiller

Recent fights

Gable Steveson (4 - 0)

Winagainst Elisha EllisonKO/TKO - Punches11 Jul 2026
Winagainst Hugo LezamaKO/TKO20 Feb 2026
Winagainst Kevin HeinKO/TKO23 Nov 2025
Winagainst Braden PetersonKO/TKO12 Sept 2025

Elisha Ellison (5 - 3)

Lossagainst Gable StevesonKO/TKO - Punches11 Jul 2026
Lossagainst Brando PeričićKO/TKO - Punches27 Sept 2025
Winagainst Rafael BrewsterKO/TKO25 Jan 2025
Winagainst Spur RoundstoneKO/TKO05 Oct 2024
Winagainst Johnnie BurlingtonKO/TKO31 Aug 2024

Striking vs grappling — detailed comparison

Gable Steveson · Striking

Significant strikes / min4.89
Significant strike accuracy71%
Strikes absorbed / min5.89
Significant strike defense59%

Grappling

Takedowns / 15 min0.00
Takedown accuracy0%
Submissions / 15 min0.00

Elisha Ellison · Striking

Significant strikes / min0.94
Significant strike accuracy38%
Strikes absorbed / min15.79
Significant strike defense34%

Grappling

Takedowns / 15 min0.00
Takedown accuracy0%
Submissions / 15 min0.00

Fight information

Date: Sunday, 12 July 2026 · 02:15
Weight class: Heavyweight
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Competition: UFC 329
Scheduled rounds: 3 rounds

Detailed analysis

Fighters' momentum

Steveson (3-0 MMA, all by R1 stoppage, ex-Olympic wrestling gold medalist) crushes the level. Ellison (5-2 pro, 0-1 UFC) lost his only UFC fight in R1, average time ~1'55". Total level mismatch.

Head-to-head

No crossover. Steveson (élite Olympic wrestling, top control) vs Ellison (regional striker fragile early). Olympic wrestling makes Ellison's takedown défense illusory.

Preparation and physical condition

No injuries declared. Weigh-in: Steveson 241 lb, Ellison 236 lb, validated.

Context & news

Highly anticipated UFC debut for Steveson, propelled to historic favorite of the organization. No real stake in terms of the result: the favorite must simply win, ideally by finish for the show.

No valeur bet possible on such a marked mismatch.

Matchup and opponent

No matchups. Steveson (élite wrestling, 241 lb) vs Ellison (striker, 236 lb). R1 finish almost certain according to both histories.

Pick summary

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

Alerts & record

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