Prediction Luke Riley – Kai Kamaka: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

Analysis available in French only

UFC 329

Featherweight

against

Sunday, 12 July 202601:15

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Fight finished

Marcelito prediction

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18+ only.

14
Wins: 0
Losses: 0
Draws

Age: 27
Height: 175 cm
Reach: 175 cm
Weight: 66.2 kg
Stance: Orthodox

Next Generation UK

« The Fighting Hawaiian »

18
Wins: 8
Losses: 1
Draws

Age: 31
Height: 170 cm
Reach: 175 cm
Weight: 66.2 kg
Stance: Orthodox

Xtreme Couture

Fighting style analysis

Luke Riley

Key stats (career averages)

1.71Significant strikes / min1.25
59%Significant strike accuracy59%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min0.00
0.00Submissions / 15 min0.00
38%Takedown defence67%
3.86Strikes absorbed / min8.50
61%Significant strike defense54%

Each axis comes from a measured career average, scaled to a fixed 0–100 range.

Kai Kamaka

Tactical analysis

Measured advantages of Luke Riley

Puissance de frappe : 71 % de victoires par KO
Précision de frappe (59 %)
Bon cardio : plusieurs victoires dans les derniers rounds
Série de 5 victoires

Measured advantages of Kai Kamaka

Précision de frappe (59 %)
Bon cardio : plusieurs victoires dans les derniers rounds

Watch out for

Défense de takedown fragile (38 %)

Watch out for

Reste sur 2 défaites
Encaisse beaucoup (8.5 coups / min)
4 défaites par KO : menton à surveiller

Recent fights

Luke Riley (14 - 0)

Winagainst Kai Kamaka IIIKO/TKO - Punches11 Jul 2026
Winagainst Michael AswellDecision - Unanimous21 Mar 2026
Winagainst Bogdan GradKO/TKO - Punches22 Nov 2025
Winagainst Tariel AbbasovTKO (Knees and Punches)15 Mar 2025
Winagainst Alexandre JuniorKO/TKO21 Sept 2024

Kai Kamaka (18 - 8)

Lossagainst Luke RileyKO/TKO - Punches11 Jul 2026
Winagainst Dakota HopeDecision - Split04 Apr 2026
Winagainst Michel LimaKO/TKO22 Jan 2026
Lossagainst Diego BrandaoDecision - Split25 Oct 2025
Winagainst Sitik MuduevDecision - Unanimous29 Jun 2025

Striking vs grappling — detailed comparison

Luke Riley · Striking

Significant strikes / min1.71
Significant strike accuracy59%
Strikes absorbed / min3.86
Significant strike defense61%

Grappling

Takedowns / 15 min0.00
Submissions / 15 min0.00
Takedown defence38%

Kai Kamaka · Striking

Significant strikes / min1.25
Significant strike accuracy59%
Strikes absorbed / min8.50
Significant strike defense54%

Grappling

Takedowns / 15 min0.00
Submissions / 15 min0.00
Takedown defence67%

Fight information

Date: Sunday, 12 July 2026 · 01:15
Weight class: Featherweight
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Competition: UFC 329
Scheduled rounds: 3 rounds

Detailed analysis

Fighters' momentum

Riley (68 %) impressionne par sa pression et son cardio. Kamaka (32 %, retour short-notice en avril) est un vétéran durable mais irrégulier. pDecision estimée à 58 % : combat susceptible d'aller au bout.

Head-to-head

Pas de croisement. Riley presseur et complet ; Kamaka boxeur expérimenté, résistant mais prenable. Le gap de niveau est modeste pour un favori à 1.38.

Preparation and physical condition

Kamaka de retour sur short notice en avril, aucune blessure nouvelle. Pesée : Riley 146 lb, Kamaka 146 lb, validés.

Context & news

Combat featherweight de la carte principale. L'enjeu de classement est léger, aucune fade news ni blessure signalée.

Riley est confirmé comme prospect solide, mais Kamaka veut surprendre le favori et prouver que son expérience vaut mieux que sa cote.

Matchup and opponent

Pas de compositions. Riley (presseur, cardio) vs Kamaka (boxeur vétéran, durabilité). Riley doit imposer le rythme sur 3 rounds.

Pick summary

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

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