Prediction Santiago Ponzinibbio – Sam Patterson: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

Analysis available in French only

UFC

Welterweight

against

WinnerSam Patterson · KO/TKO · R2

Saturday, 25 July 202611:00

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Fight finished

Marcelito pickLost

Santiago Ponzinibbio

24%

Operator odds are not available right now

« Argentine Dagger »

31
Wins: 10
Losses: 0
Draws

Age: 39
Height: 183 cm
Reach: 185 cm
Weight: 77.6 kg
Stance: Orthodox

American Top Team

15
Wins: 3
Losses: 1
Draws

Age: 30
Height: 191 cm
Reach: 198 cm
Weight: 77.1 kg
Stance: Orthodox

Team Crossface

Fighting style analysis

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Key stats (career averages)

5.04Significant strikes / min2.58
42%Significant strike accuracy41%
0.61Takedowns / 15 min0.48
20%Takedown accuracy50%
0.00Submissions / 15 min0.97
100%Takedown defence100%
4.82Strikes absorbed / min2.12
63%Significant strike defense66%

Each axis comes from a measured career average, scaled to a fixed 0–100 range.

Sam Patterson

Tactical analysis

Measured advantages of Santiago Ponzinibbio

Volume de frappe élevé (5.04 coups significatifs / min)
Excellente défense de takedown (100 %)
6 victoires par soumission
Bon cardio : plusieurs victoires dans les derniers rounds

Measured advantages of Sam Patterson

Excellente défense de takedown (100 %)
7 victoires par soumission
Avantage d'allonge : +13 cm
Finisseur : 84 % de combats terminés avant la limite

Watch out for

Reste sur 2 défaites
Encaisse beaucoup (4.82 coups / min)
6 défaites par KO : menton à surveiller
Âge : 40 ans

Watch out for

2 défaites par KO : menton à surveiller

Recent fights

Santiago Ponzinibbio (31 - 10)

Lossagainst Sam PattersonKO/TKO - Punches25 Jul 2026
Lossagainst Daniel RodriguezKO/TKO - Punch04 May 2025
Winagainst Carlston HarrisKO/TKO - Punches12 Jan 2025
Lossagainst Muslim SalikhovDecision - Split14 Jul 2024
Lossagainst Kevin HollandKO/TKO - Punch09 Apr 2023

Sam Patterson (15 - 3)

Winagainst Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO - Punches25 Jul 2026
Lossagainst Michael PageDecision - Unanimous21 Mar 2026
Winagainst Trey WatersKO/TKO - Punches06 Sept 2025
Winagainst Danny BarlowKO/TKO - Punch02 Mar 2025
Winagainst Kiefer CrosbieSubmission - Arm Triangle27 Jul 2024

Striking vs grappling — detailed comparison

Santiago Ponzinibbio · Striking

Significant strikes / min5.04
Significant strike accuracy42%
Strikes absorbed / min4.82
Significant strike defense63%

Grappling

Takedowns / 15 min0.61
Takedown accuracy20%
Submissions / 15 min0.00
Takedown defence100%

Sam Patterson · Striking

Significant strikes / min2.58
Significant strike accuracy41%
Strikes absorbed / min2.12
Significant strike defense66%

Grappling

Takedowns / 15 min0.48
Takedown accuracy50%
Submissions / 15 min0.97
Takedown defence100%

Fight prediction

Method of victory

Santiago Ponzinibbio
KO/TKO15%
Submission6%
Decision8%

Sam Patterson
KO/TKO32%
Submission32%
Decision8%

Round of victory

R1Santiago Ponzinibbio 13%, Sam Patterson 40%
R2Santiago Ponzinibbio 4%, Sam Patterson 18%
R3Santiago Ponzinibbio 4%, Sam Patterson 5%
DecisionSantiago Ponzinibbio 8%, Sam Patterson 8%

Fight information

Date: Saturday, 25 July 2026 · 11:00
Weight class: Welterweight
Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Competition: UFC
Scheduled rounds: 3 rounds

Detailed analysis

Fighters' momentum

Patterson 4-0 UFC, 3 finitions; Ponzinibbio 2-3 sur ses 5 derniers mais avec des combats face à du top 10 (Burns, Magny, Rakhmonov). Forme brute pour Patterson, qualité d'opposition pour Ponzinibbio.

Head-to-head

Pas de H2H.

Preparation and physical condition

Aucun absent majeur.

Context & news

Welterweight card du UFC Fight Night 282 à Abu Dhabi. Ponzinibbio (35 ans) à un tournant de carrière face à un prospect de 27 ans en pleine ascension.

Motivation historique pour l'Argentin qui joue une partie de sa legacy, Patterson vise une percée dans le top 10. Le contexte de carte éloignée et le décalage horaire sont favorables à Patterson (jeune, acclimatation rapide).

Matchup and opponent

Combat 3 rounds welterweight. Patterson base striking/boxe, Ponzinibbio base Muay Thai/boxe. Compo à confirmer.

Pick summary

Welterweight card: le vétéran argentin Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-8, ancien contender) remet son nom en jeu face au jeune Britannique Sam Patterson (13-2-1, 4-0 UFC). Le marché surpondère Patterson (no-vig 75%) sur la hype du prospect, possible valeur sur Ponzinibbio.

Alerts & record

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Analysis available in French only

UFC

Welterweight

against

WinnerSam Patterson · KO/TKO · R2

Saturday, 25 July 202611:00

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Fight finished

Marcelito pickLost

Santiago Ponzinibbio

24%

Operator odds are not available right now

« Argentine Dagger »

31
Wins: 10
Losses: 0
Draws

Age: 39
Height: 183 cm
Reach: 185 cm
Weight: 77.6 kg
Stance: Orthodox

American Top Team

15
Wins: 3
Losses: 1
Draws

Age: 30
Height: 191 cm
Reach: 198 cm
Weight: 77.1 kg
Stance: Orthodox

Team Crossface