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The US Open is not just handing out a trophy this year. It could also change the summit of women's tennis. Aryna Sabalenka began the tournament as the official world No. 1, but the reset of the previous edition's points shifted the balance in the live rankings. Elena Rybakina, already threatening for several months, finds herself in a position to seize power if she turns this virtual lead into a strong result in New York.
A Fragile but Real Lead
Sabalenka is defending the 2,000 points from her previous triumph at Flushing Meadows.
The mechanism is simple, and brutal for a defending champion. Sabalenka is defending the 2,000 points from her previous triumph at Flushing Meadows. Rybakina, meanwhile, had far fewer points to lose during this same fortnight. In the live projections, the Kazakh therefore moves ahead even before the draw has delivered its definitive verdict.
This provisional ranking does not yet replace the official hierarchy published after the tournament, but it says something very concrete: Sabalenka no longer has a comfortable cushion. The WTA had already indicated before the start of the US Open that Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, and Coco Gauff could all overtake her depending on their runs. The race is therefore not a calculation anomaly; it is one of the sporting storylines running through this edition.
Sabalenka Remains Standing
The Belarusian did not approach this threat as a victim. She began her title defense with a controlled victory over Camila Osorio, an important win after a less convincing period in the biggest events. Her ranking, her experience in New York, and her recent record still carry considerable weight. Winning two US Opens in a row does not happen by accident, even when the rankings begin to shake.
But this pressure is unusual. Sabalenka is seeking a third consecutive crown in New York while protecting a long run at the top of the WTA that began in October 2024. The challenge is twofold: win the day's matches and prevent calculations from settling into every service game. In a Grand Slam tournament, this kind of internal noise can be costly.
Rybakina Has Reached Another Level
Rybakina is no longer merely a dangerous big server enjoying a good week. Her 2026 Australian Open title, earned by defeating Sabalenka in the final, changed both her season and her place in the rivalry. She added a major achievement to her résumé, following her 2022 Wimbledon triumph, and established herself as a credible candidate for the world No. 1 spot.
The question now concerns her ability to hold up physically and mentally for two weeks in New York. The US Open has not always been her most rewarding tournament, and she experienced physical setbacks during the summer. But her profile fits American hard courts: a powerful serve, an aggressive first strike, and apparent calm in tight moments. When her body holds up, no one can treat her as a mere challenger.
Pegula and Gauff Remain in the Picture
The Sabalenka-Rybakina duel attracts the spotlight, but the draw is not limited to two names. Pegula and Gauff also have a mathematical path, making every women's result a little more significant. For Pegula, the challenge is to turn her consistency into a statement run. For Gauff, it is about using the energy of the American crowd without letting it overwhelm her.
This ranking battle gives the tournament a tension that the opening weeks of a Grand Slam do not always offer. A second-round win can shift a projection, while an early elimination can redraw the entire top of the rankings. Sabalenka officially retains the crown for now, Rybakina holds the live advantage, and New York will decide the matter in a way that goes beyond an Excel spreadsheet: on the court, ball by ball, with very little room for ordinary days.