Jacksonville Jaguars – Houston Texans

NFL regular-season game, Week 6, between the Jacksonville Jaguars, designated as the home team, and the Houston Texans, visitors, at Wembley Stadium in London on 18 October 2026. Jacksonville is 3–1 after four games, with 1 266 offensive yards, including 469 rushing and 843 passing, 12 touchdowns, and a +6 turnover differential.

Houston is 0–4, with 1 375 offensive yards, including 1 141 passing, 9 touchdowns, and a +1 turnover differential. The Jaguars won 22–17 at Cincinnati on 4 October; Trevor Lawrence threw for 227 yards and a touchdown.

Houston lost 34–30 to Dallas on the same day. The exact opponents and the comparative difficulty of these schedules are not sufficiently documented here to establish a precise strength-of-schedule adjustment.

The sources selected do not document a recent matchup between Jacksonville and Houston with a date, season, and score. The head-to-head comparison therefore cannot serve as a predictive reference point in this analysis.

Jacksonville plays two consecutive games in London, Philadelphia on October 11 and then Houston on October 18, followed by a bye week. This continuity of location and time zone may reduce its logistical adjustment, but two consecutive international games may also increase fatigue.

Houston plays at Tennessee on October 11 before traveling to London, which may increase its travel burden, with no quantifiable effect based on the available information. On the field, the Jacksonville scenario relies on the running game, a balanced offense, and creating turnovers; it is weakened by the penalties observed against Cincinnati and the uncertainty over repeating the turnover differential.

The Houston scenario relies on its 1 141 passing yards and a high-scoring game if the Texans better protect their quarterback and improve on third downs; it is weakened by the 0–4 record, the 12 sacks allowed, and the 19 third-down conversions out of 54, compared with 23 out of 45 for Jacksonville. The weather, wind, and condition of the Wembley field remain unknown.

The official lineups have not yet been published. Trevor Lawrence is confirmed as Jacksonville's active quarterback in the statistics available as of October 4.

The quarterbacks, offensive and defensive lines, as well as the other starters actually available on October 18, remain to be confirmed.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (Moneyline). Estimated probability: 60.7%, based on market odds. Odds 1.61. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.