Leeds United +0.5
Archived odds 1.40
Best odds
Unibet1.40
Unibet1.40
PMU1.27Archived odds
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Leeds
ManchesterUnited
Timestamped proof
Leeds United +0.5
Archived odds 1.40
Unibet1.40PMU1.27Archived odds
Prediction: Leeds United +0.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 69.1 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Leeds United +0.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 69.1 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Leeds lost 2-1 at Arsenal on October 10, after taking the lead, then had beaten Newcastle 4-1 at home on September 14 and drawn 1-1 at Brighton on September 5. The official preview of October 9 stated that they had nine points after the first five matchdays and had conceded three goals at that stage, before the Arsenal match.
The recent results of Manchester United retained in the context are not sufficiently verified by individual official pages to be presented as their recent run. Their confirmed schedule includes Tottenham on October 10, Atlético de Madrid on October 13, then Leeds, creating a rest and travel constraint, with rotation only hypothetical.
No comparable xG, shot volume, or pressing indicator has been established for either team.
In the 2025/26 Premier League, Leeds and Manchester United drew 1-1 at Elland Road on January 4, 2026, then Leeds won 2-1 at Old Trafford on April 13, 2026. A friendly on August 12, 2026, ended 1-1, with Manchester United winning the penalty shootout 5-4.
The two league matches are more relevant than the friendly, but the coaches, squads, and contexts have changed; these previous encounters therefore do not alone constitute a reliable prédictive signal.
Leeds’ favorable scenario rests on an intense start at Elland Road, pressing capable of forcing high recoveries, and quick attacks down the flanks with Dominic Calvert-Lewin as the focal point. However, the defeat at Arsenal shows that taking the lead does not guarantee control, while the possible absences of James or Rodon could reduce progression and defensive coverage.
Manchester United’s favorable scenario rests on transitions after beating the home side’s press, taking advantage of the spaces left by Leeds; the Tottenham-Atlético-Leeds sequence could nevertheless weigh on freshness and team selection. Leeds could also exploit this fatigue, whereas a rotation leaving several United starters fresh would overturn this reading.
No verified data allows for a precise comparison of set pieces, penalty-area defending, or chance quality.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +12 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 6 | +5 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | WLWWW | |
| 3 | 6 | +13 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | WWWDL | |
| 4 | 7 | +4 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | WWLDL | |
| 5 | 7 | +1 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | WLWDW | |
| 6 | 7 | +5 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | LDWDD | |
| 7 | 7 | +1 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | LDWDD | |
| 8 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | LDWDD | |
| 9 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | LDLDD | |
| 10 | 7 | -4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | LWLWL | |
| 11 | 7 | -4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | LLWLD | |
| 12 | 7 | -4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | WDWLD | |
| 13 | 6 | -3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | WDLWL | |
| 14 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | DDLDW | |
| 15 | 6 | -6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | WWLLL | |
| 16 | 7 | -3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | WLDDL | |
| 17 | 6 | -3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | LLWDD | |
| 18 | 6 | -6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | LLLDW | |
| 19 | 6 | -6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | LLDDD | |
| 20 | 6 | -6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | DLDDL |
CoachD. Farke
CoachM. Carrick
Bench · Out and doubtful
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 81 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
LeedsManchester United
RecordLeeds · 1W · 1D · 1L
