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The NBA Europe project has still not tipped off, but it is beginning to put figures on the table. A study reported this weekend estimates that two franchises based in France, in Paris and Lyon, could generate around 7 billion dollars in economic activity between 2027 and 2036, or nearly 6 billion euros. The figure is impressive, of course. It also serves a very concrete purpose: to convince people that the future league would not merely be a sporting showcase, but a product capable of making an impact on cities, arenas, broadcasters, and investors.
A French market at the center of the plan
Paris and Lyon have been among the cities targeted by the NBA for its European expansion for several months.
Paris and Lyon have been among the cities targeted by the NBA for its European expansion for several months. The proposed format remains a 16-team competition, with 12 permanent franchises and 4 places awarded through sporting performance. The targeted launch remains fall 2027, in partnership with FIBA.
In the French case, the study highlights the cumulative effect of games, potential playoffs, commercial operations, and related events. It mentions around 400 events over ten years and nearly 1,000 direct jobs each year. This calculation therefore goes beyond the ticket offices: it adds up ticket sales, hospitality, tourism, dining, transportation, merchandising, and the induced activity around the arenas.
The promise is being made in a country where basketball already has a solid foundation. France produces NBA players, draws attention with Victor Wembanyama, counts Paris Basketball and ASVEL among the names in European discussions, and remains a sports market dominated by football. For the NBA, the challenge is to turn this popularity into recurring revenue.
Billions, but no locked-in model yet
The French figure is part of a series of similar studies conducted in other targeted markets. Italy, Spain, Germany, and Turkey have already been presented as high-potential markets. This consistency lends weight to the proposal, but it does not resolve every question.
The entry cost for franchises remains very high, often estimated at between 500 million and 1 billion dollars depending on the cities and investors. At that level, no major traditional European club can move forward alone without a powerful financial partner. The NBA is therefore counting on a mix of existing sports brands, private investors, football clubs, and new structures.
This is where the project becomes more political. Paris and Lyon are not merely two basketball cities; they are also two markets where competition between institutions can be fierce. The EuroLeague, for its part, continues to prepare its own expansion and has not given up defending its position. The head of the European organization recently acknowledged that discussions with the NBA were continuing, while also preparing a scenario involving a competing competition.
France could win big, but not without risk
For French basketball, a dual NBA Europe presence would be a dramatic accelerator. It would provide international exposure, budgets rarely seen in European arenas, and a new sporting hierarchy. It could also attract talent, sponsors, and broadcasters who currently view European basketball cautiously.
But the sporting payoff is not automatic. If the new league captures the best markets without a solid agreement with the EuroLeague, the continent could end up with two competing products, crowded schedules, and commercial value spread thin. Clubs that are not selected would then watch the train go by with the strained smile of those who clearly heard the engine, but never received a ticket.
The next step will be less spectacular than a figure in the billions, but more decisive: finding out who will actually put up the money, under which brand, in which arena, and with what role for the clubs already in place. Paris and Lyon are in the sights. The question now is whether they will become two French locomotives or two appealing boxes in a spreadsheet still under construction.