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NHL salary arbitration hearings open this Monday, July 20, and will run through August 1. Fifteen restricted free agents filed their cases with the Players' Association on July 5. Among them, one name dominates all discussions: Jason Robertson, the star winger of the Dallas Stars. Nine cases have already found a negotiated resolution before going before the arbitrator, but six remain pending, and the salary cap raised to $104 million for the 2026-2027 season reshuffles the entire balance of power. As a reminder, during a hearing, each side submits a figure and the arbitrator chooses one of the two amounts, with no compromise possible.
A salary cap that changes the rules of the game
The salary cap increase, the largest since its introduction in 2005, gives general managers margins they haven't seen in two decades.
The salary cap increase, the largest since its introduction in 2005, gives general managers margins they haven't seen in two decades. This financial breather partly explains why so many players chose arbitration: comparable contracts have exploded this summer, and every agent intends to maximize their client's value in this new context. The cap is expected to rise further to $113.5 million for the 2027-2028 campaign, according to joint projections from the league and the union.
The unrestricted free agent market, considered shallow this year, has pushed several teams to favor trades. Eight trades involving established players have already occurred since the market opened, an unusual volume for July. Arbitration acts as an additional accelerator: no team wants to have a salary imposed by an independent third party.
Jason Robertson, the case paralyzing Dallas
Robertson is coming off a 96-point season, including 45 goals and 51 assists, in 82 games. At 26 years old, the left winger developed by the Stars can legitimately claim an annual salary above $10 million. His hearing is scheduled for July 25, and the countdown has begun. He earned $7.75 million per year on his previous four-season contract, signed in 2022 after a first campaign with 79 points that already commanded admiration.
If the arbitrator issues a one-year award, Robertson will become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027. This prospect fuels trade rumors: several rebuilding teams with comfortable cap space are watching the case. The Stars, for their part, still hope for a long-term agreement before the deadline. Last season, all thirteen players who filed for arbitration signed before their hearings. The pressure is entirely on the Texas management.
Nine settlements, six uncertainties
Of the fifteen cases filed, nine have resulted in agreements. Jamie Drysdale, a 24-year-old defenseman, signed a four-season contract worth $6.5 million annually with the Philadelphia Flyers. Kirby Dach accepted a one-year bridge deal with the Montreal Canadiens, while Trevor Zegras, also with the Flyers, secured four seasons. Cole Perfetti landed a six-year pact with the Winnipeg Jets, and Connor McMichael signed for the same duration in St. Louis.
Nick Robertson — Jason's brother — accepted a two-year contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Braden Schneider (Rangers, one year), Peyton Krebs (Sabres, four years), and Xavier Bourgault (Senators, one year) also closed their cases before hearings. Six players remain in limbo: besides Jason Robertson, goaltender Jet Greaves and forward Cole Sillinger in Columbus, netminder Akira Schmid in Florida, and defenseman Ronan Seeley in Carolina.
The precedent of summer 2025, where all cases were settled without hearings, could repeat itself. But the size of the contract Robertson is entitled to demand makes this scenario more fragile in Dallas than elsewhere. If the hearing takes place and the award exceeds a certain threshold, the Stars would have a walk-away right that would make their star winger immediately available on the market. The next five days will tell whether the Texas franchise gives in, trades, or lets an arbitrator decide.